The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. World Series edition:
***Disclaimer: Narrowing the top plays in the 2016 World Series down to five was practically impossible and those seven games were some of the best baseball that has ever been played***
#5. With the Cubs down 3-1 in the series and already staring down an early 1-0 deficit in Game 5, Kris Bryant got just enough of the 1-1 pitch from Trevor Bauer to get up and over the ivy in left field and start a fourth inning rally that would extend the series to a sixth game.
*wWPA: 14%**wWE: 56%
#4. Later in Game 5, Aroldis Chapman put together one of the best postseason relief performances ever when he came into pitch the final 2 ⅔ innings — giving up just one hit while striking out four batters. Chapman inherited a runner in scoring position in the seventh and didn’t falter, but his most impressive moment came in the top of the eighth when he was able to strike out the hot-hitting Lindor looking with the speedy Rajai Davis just 90 feet from tying the game.
*wWPA: 9%**wWE: 87%
#3. In Game 3, with the series tied at a game a piece, Cody Allen continued his absolute dominance in the postseason as he slammed the door shut on the Cubs striking out Javier Baez. Baez had worked a 2-2 count with runners in scoring position on second and third, and Allen was able to get him to chase a fastball high and outside to end the game and secure his sixth save of the playoffs.
*wWPA: 24%**wWE: 100%
#2. Coming in at #2, believe it or not, is the game-winning hit in the seventh, and final, game of the World Series. Ben Zobrist (0 for 4 in the game to that point) came through with one out and a 1-2 count when he slapped a single to the opposite field and drove in the go-ahead run earning World Series MVP honors in the process. Unfortunately for Zobrist, that still wasn’t the most pivotal moment in the World Series (although he got his second ring, so he’s probably not too upset).
*wWPA: 31%**wWE: 89%
#1. The most pivotal/clutch moment of the World Series was also the most surprising. Rajai Davis came up to bat with 2 outs and a runner on second base in the bottom of the eighth and with none other than Aroldis Chapman firing from sixty feet six inches away; Rajai who hit a career high 12 HRs during the regular season worked a 2-2 count and reached over the plate to pull a line drive down the line that barely cleared the left field wall and tied the game at 6-6. The momentum shifted in that improbable moment, and an already exciting Game 7 turned into one of the greatest baseball games of all-time.
*wWPA: -39%**wWE: 47%
*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added — The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.
**wWE winner's Win Expectancy — The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.
The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the National League Championship Series edition:
#5. After dropping two games in a row to the Dodgers, the Cubbies came out swinging against the rookie Julio Urias. The rally in the top of the fourth featured 3 of the top 5 plays in Game 4. Zobrist, Baez and Contreras each singled to start the fourth inning and Russell later hit a two-run HR to help the Cubs take a 4 run lead into the second half of the game. It was the Contreras single that made it into the top 5 plays here as well as the subsequent RBI, which was the first run scored by the Cubs.
Contreras RBI single:*wWPA: 16%**wWE: 77%
#4. After a Game 1 loss, Kenley Jansen was able to save Game 2 for the Dodgers who managed only a single run for insurance. Jansen came in for a tough two inning save and slammed the door shut recording two perfect innings with 4 strikeouts. The Dexter Fowler strikeout makes the top 5 list which makes since considering Bryant and Rizzo were chomping at the bit for a game-tying RBI (it just so happens that Jansen retired Bryant and Rizzo as well).
Dexter Fowler K:*wWPA: 9%**wWE: 89%
At 1:43
#3. In Game 5, with the series tied at 2 games a piece, it was Addison Russell who came up huge again for Chicago. With one out and Baez on second base in the top of the sixth inning, Russell hit the second pitch he saw from veteran Joe Blanton over the right center field fence for his second HR in as many games (you can hear John Smoltz and Joe Buck debating whether or not LA would pitch to Russell in the background).
*wWPA: 25%**wWE: 78%
#2. The top two plays from the NLCS were in the dramatic series opener. Both teams waited until the eighth inning to amp of the excitement, but they certainly didn’t disappoint. After watching Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman come in and strikeout both Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig with the bases loaded, Adrian Gonzalez dug in and punched a single through the middle on a 1-1 count to even the game at 3-3 with his two RBIs.
*wWPA: -31%**wWE: 50%
#1. Not to be outdone, Miguel Montero came in as a pinch hitter for Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the eighth to inject his own bases loaded magic. Montero (who was 0-4 in the NLDS against the Giants) delivered with a two-out Grand Slam to put the game away for the Cubs. In fact, Blanton only needed one more strike to push this game to the ninth inning and give the Dodgers offense a chance, but he left the pitch right over the middle of the plate and Montero made him pay.
*wWPA: 35%**wWE: 99%
*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.
**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.
The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the American League Championship Series edition:
#5. Coming in at #5 is the improbable performance of Ryan Merritt who pitched 4 ⅓ innings of 2 hit ball in only his second career start to propel the Cleveland Indians to a series’ clinching Game Five win over Toronto. While only his double play off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion in the bottom of the 4th made the top plays’ list, his overall performance was beyond impressive and every inning he was able to eat was enough to extend the bullpen and help them enter their World Series matchup well rested.
Encarnacion double play ball:*wWPA: 6%**wWE: 83%
At 0:30
#4. With the Blue Jays down 3-0 in the series, Donaldson came through in the bottom of the 3rd inning in Game 4 with a solo HR off Cy Young candidate, Corey Kluber. The reigning MVP of the AL gave the Blue Jays a lead that they would hold on to and extended the series with one swing of the bat on a 2-2 count.
*wWPA: 12%**wWE: 63%
#3. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller were brilliant throughout the playoffs and Game 2 of the ALCS was their finest moment. Miller struck out five of the six hitters he faced for two perfect innings on just 24 pitches; Allen struck out two of the three hitters he faced for a perfect ninth inning and the save. The moment that landed at #3 here was Allen’s strikeout of Edwin Encarnacion in the top of the ninth; Allen faced the heart of the order in the ninth, catching Edwin looking on a full count, Bautista swinging for a strikeout, and got Tulowitzki to fly out to center field.
*wWPA: 8%**wWE: 90%
#2. Facing a 2-2 count in the top of the sixth inning and the game tied at 2 runs apiece, Jason Kipnis took Stroman deep to right field to breakout of his slump and put the Indians on top. With the bullpen in rare form, one run was more than enough for the Indians in the postseason and therefore this clutch solo shot made it to #2 on the list.
*wWPA: 16%**wWE: 66%
#1. By far the most pivotal moment, based on the statistics in question, in the ALCS was all the way back in Game 1. Francisco Lindor kicked off Game 1 on the right foot for the Indians driving an 0-2 pitch over the right center field wall and plating Jason Kipnis for an early 2-0 lead.
Those two runs ended up being the only runs in the ballgame and the Indians carried that momentum to a near sweep of the Blue Jays.
*wWPA: 24%**wWE: 82%
*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.
**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.
The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the National League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:
#5. These next two moments weren’t necessarily in fifth place in terms of wWPA and wWE, but they were definitely on the list. The reason why they sit at #5 on the list is due to rarity of the situation and the fact that these two pitchers helped themselves and their team go on to win their respective games. After taking over for Kyle Hendricks (who gave up two runs in 3 ⅔ innings on four hits), Travis Wood not only got four outs (2 strikeouts) without giving up a hit or a walk, but he extended the Cubs lead with a solo HR (just the 2nd reliever to hit a HR in the postseason. Not to be outdone, Jake Arrieta helped himself out by launching a three run blast off of (another HR hitting pitcher) Madison Bumgarner in the top of the second inning in Game 3 against the Giants. The bomb put the Cubs up 3-0, and although the Giants eventually marched back to take Game 3 with a score of 6-5 these pitchers certainly helped to kick start a stagnant Cubs offense. Also, with Arrieta’s HR, the Cubs became just the second team in history to have two pitchers hit HRs in the same postseason.
Wood HR -*wWPA: 8%**wWE: 86%
Arrieta HR -*wWPA: -27%**wWE: 24%
#4. With only seven total hits in Game 1 between the Giants and Cubs heading into the bottom of the eighth, Cubs’ youngster Javier Baez came up huge hitting what would become the game winning HR well over the ivy in left field off of starter Johnny Cueto. Up until that point in the game, Cueto had given up only two hits and had struck out nine in 7 ⅓ innings.
*wWPA: 30%**wWE: 86%
#3. Washington’s unlikely hero of Game 2 against LA was Jose Lobaton. In the fourth inning with Washington trailing by two runs, Lobaton sat on a hanging curve from veteran Rich Hill and drove it over the left centerfield wall. Lobaton’s 3 RBIs put the Nationals up for good in the game and even the series at a game a piece.
*wWPA: 35%**wWE: 65%
#2. The first of Conor Gillaspie’s heroic offerings came in the top of the ninth in the Giants’ Wild Card play-in game against the Mets. With runners on first and second and one out, Gillaspie took Mets’ closer, Jeurys Familia, deep to right to give San Francisco a three run lead with just ½ inning left to play.
*wWPA: 38%**wWE: 96%
#1. In the bottom of the eighth inning with two runners on in Game 3 of the NLDS, Conor Gillaspie became a hero again as he crushed a triple to deep right centerfield off of the Cubs’ closer, Aroldis Chapman. On a single swing of the bat, Gillaspie drove in two runs to give the Giants the lead and also put himself in scoring position with just one out in the inning. Gillaspie would score on the next at-bat on a Brandon Crawford single up the middle to extend the Giants lead.
*wWPA: 50%**wWE: 91%
*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.
**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.
The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the American League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:
#5. Carlos Gomez ripped a line drive that ricocheted off of the face of Francisco Liriano, in the bottom of the eighth, for a single in Game 2 against the Blue Jays. Moreland scored from 2B and the Rangers were in a position to tie the game with two runners on and the tying run at the plate. Although the Rangers lost the game, Gomez’s single gave them an opportunity and also cost the Blue Jays a pitcher at a pivotal juncture in the ALDS.
*wWPA: -9%**wWE: 83%
At 0:51
#4. In the bottom of the eighth of Game 3, the Red Sox were rallying and two plays happened in that inning that both drastically changed the WE of the game. Hanley Ramirez hit a two-out RBI single off Cody Allen, who had been lights out throughout the regular season and postseason, then with 2 outs and the tying run on second base, Cody Allen was able to get Bogaerts to line out to Kipnis to end the inning and the threat.
Ramirez two-out RBI *wWPA: -13%**wWE: 70%
Bogaerts line out *wWPA: 12%**wWE: 83%
At 1:40
#3. After Josh Donaldson led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a double off of Matt Bush in game 3, it was his clutch, heads-up baserunning that sealed the series sweep of Texas as Rougned Odor’s errant throw ruined an inning ending double play and the Rangers Playoff run.
Donaldson double*wWPA: 17%**wWE: 81%
Odor’s error*wWPA: 29%**wWE: 100%
#2. Cody Allen was remarkable throughout the 2016 Postseason and this moment may have been one of his best. With a sweep of the Boston Red Sox on the line in the ALDS, runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Cody Allen was able to get Travis Shaw to flyout to shallow RF on a full count to clinch the series.
*wWPA: 18%**wWE: 100%
#1. In the Bottom of the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd and the score tied at 2-2, Edwin Encarnacion launched a walk-off HR to win the AL Wild Card Play-In game for the Toronto Blue Jays. This moment propelled the Blue Jays into the ALDS and the momentum garnered help them pull off an unlikely sweep of the Texas Rangers.
*wWPA: 17%**wWE: 100%
*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.
**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.
As October continues to fade away, the MLB playoffs are well underway and I believe the only people disappointed are the fans of the teams quickly losing ground to Cleveland and Chicago (I never thought I’d say that). The MLB playoffs, in my opinion, are the closest thing to perfection when it comes to postseason sports (and yes I’m including our beloved March Madness in that statement). The MLB postseason, in it’s current form, is comprehensive, fair, and exhilarating. Baseball is our National Pastime, and even though we constantly hearken to the good oil’ days of Aaron, Ruth, and Mantle, Baseball is constantly changing and improving (for good or bad) the way the game is played and how it appeals to the ever-changing audience.
The Good (at a glance)
With the new Wild Card play-in game, Baseball capitalizes on the excitement of the single elimination style that has created the craze of March Madness.
Edwin Encarnacion’s 11th Inning Walk-Off Home Run
Alright, let’s start at the beginning ...
Why fix something that’s not broken?
Baseball is, and always has been, America’s National Pastime, a sport that is enriched with tradition that dates back to the 1870s. However, the social landscape of the world has changed exponentially in the past decade and in 2016 it is more important than ever to appeal to the short attention span that has meticulously developed with the success of Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook. MLB teams play 162 games each year, and before 1969 the teams with the best records in each league (American and National) played each other in a best of seven World Series to crown a champion. If we were still using that system in 2016, then that would leave 28 teams [read: 28 fan bases] out of postseason consideration immediately following an arduous 162 game season. In fact, more than half those teams would have fallen out of reach mathematically well before the end of the season effectively losing the interest of half the country as the postseason approached. Baseball has strived to constantly evolve it’s postseason moving from one round to two rounds to three rounds and finally adding the play-in game in 2012, and there’s only one problem (that I can think of) that all of the “fixing” didn’t fix. The problem with adding teams into the postseason conversation is that you are not always left with the best team in each league as the dust settles. Before 1969, each and every year the two best teams played each other. There was absolutely no circumstance when a team with a losing record would be able to win the World Series. In 2016, while it still has yet to happen, the opportunity is certainly there. Eleven years ago in 2005, the San Diego Padres were able to win the NL West with an 82-80 record and could have been the first team to accomplish that unfortunate feat if they hadn’t won five of their last six games to close out the season. Year to year, it’s something that every major American sport deals with, within each league (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) some divisions are just not as strong as other divisions and it’s incredibly unpredictable. There are a lot of factors that aid both smaller and larger market teams to get stronger year to year (the draft, free agency, large wallets, etc.), and as is oft true in team sports any team can beat any other team on any given day. So again, I attest that MLB has nailed the postseason; giving multiple teams a shot to play their way in, cultivating competition up until the last game of their extensive season, and ultimately crowning a deserving champion each and every season. Let’s put it to the test, though.
MLB vs NFL
I admit this is a tough comparison especially given the commercial success of the Super Bowl each and every year, however I will challenge that the commercials and halftime show have literally been more of a success than the actual game being played. The point I’m trying to make is not which postseason makes the most money or attracts the most devoted viewership. As I stated previously, I want to know which postseason is most effective in finding an undisputed champion of the league in question and most successful in affording their fan base the opportunity to get swept up in the team's’ triumphs. The NFL fails to compare for a few different reasons; neutral field for the Super Bowl, unpredictability of single elimination games, lack of managerial responsibility. If you ask me, there is nothing more disappointing than having your (often hometown) team make the Super Bowl and realizing that on top of the ridiculous ticket prices you also have to buy a flight to California, Arizona, New Orleans, etc. In every other major sport, there are both home and away games for the playoff teams allowing hometown fans a greater opportunity to support their team in person. Football, in general, is a lot more physical than the other major sports which makes a best-of playoff series out of the question and some teams do get home playoff games, but overall it’s extremely inconvenient. On top of that, it could be one game and you’re out for your favorite team. It’s heartbreaking that each year a fan base can spend four months hoping and pining for a playoff game, and then have their dreams dashed in just sixty minutes on that first Saturday or Sunday. Lastly, with Bill Belichick the notable exception to this rule, there is very little managing done during the NFL postseason. I find myself constantly disappointed that a player didn’t run harder, or overthrew that pass, or fumbled the ball; but these are events that are part of the game of football and can befall even the best player. Even Bill Belichick and the undefeated Patriots were overwhelmed in 2012 when they were beaten by a far inferior New York Giants team. In Baseball, matchups and managerial decisions are countless and can directly lead to a win or lose. Just ask Buck Showalter (considered one of the best managers in the game), who is under heat for his use of his bullpen in the Baltimore Orioles loss this year to the Toronto Blue Jays; or just look at how Terry Francona is using his midseason addition, Andrew Miller, this postseason for the Indians. The Super Bowl is thrilling, but it so often seems like dumb luck.
Recent examples below:
Malcolm Butler’s Interception in the End zone — 2015 Super Bowl
David Tyree’s Helmet Catch — Super Bowl XLII
Nothing lucky about this ... Rivera closes down four separate World Series because that’s what he does.
1996 — World Series Game 6
1998 — World Series Game 4
2000 — World Series Game 5
2009 — World Series Game 6
MLB vs NHL and NBA
I’m lumping the NHL and NBA together because their postseasons are extremely similar, and they both almost got it right. Almost. In my opinion, there are only two that need improvement: be less inclusive and the home court/ice advantage. Competition is paramount in sports and even the most tortured fan bases would agree that they don’t want pity. Sixteen teams are included in both the NBA and NHL playoffs, which means more than half the league makes the postseason. I remember playing in sports tournaments growing up and all of the trophies that were given out, and I never remember anyone enjoying their “participation” trophy. I know that fan bases want to see their team make the postseason at any cost, but the fans of the 8th place team each year must be embarrassed that they even have a shot to win the championship. With a postseason that is this inclusive, how is competition fostered at the end of the regular season? Toward the end of the regular season teams that are well ahead of the curve are only vying for the ability to host crucial playoff games at home, and, although it’s hard to deny the home court/ice advantage, it must be difficult to the risk of injury to your most vital players for a couple of relatively meaningless games. Speaking of home court/ice advantage, I don’t understand its usage in the NBA/NHL. First of all, there is far too much travel and delay when a series goes to seven games because the last three games of those series alternate between the home and away teams. Also, I don’t see the clear advantage of this plan considering the lesser team can still host one of the final two games if they are able to push the series that far. I believe the point of the home field advantage is twofold: to give the home team the advantage if the series is extended to seven games, and to validate the upset if the away team is able to close out a series on the road. Both of these points are moot if you use a 2-2-1-1-1 series.
Yeah, but why the play-in game?!
I don’t really know why this is an argument, but I have heard the whining that the play-in game favors the team with the single best pitcher (not necessarily the best team). First of all, one of the most often used idioms in sports is “Defense wins championships”, one that has been proven time and again. Needless to say, if a team has the best pitcher don’t they deserve to win? The importance of having an ace at the top of the rotation is something that every team covets throughout the offseason, the regular season, at the trade deadline, and finally appreciates as the postseason approaches. However, using the logic above, wouldn’t all of the Wild Card play-in teams meet their demise shortly thereafter? I could go through each of the twenty teams that have had the distinction to play in those games and pick them apart, but the case was made for me in the 2014 MLB playoffs. In 2014, one of the most exciting World Series in recent memory, the San Francisco Giants were able to beat the Kansas City Royals in seven games after each of those teams survived their respective Wild Card play-in games to begin the postseason. In fact, the two teams only suffered two collective losses leading up to their World Series matchup proving that the best teams have both star power and depth. Even this year, only two of the top four teams heading into the playoffs are still alive and the clear World Series favorite, the Chicago Cubs, are tied heading into game 3 of the NLCS. I implore you to watch the rest of the postseason unfold, even if you are a Yankees/Red Sox/Orioles/Giants fan. Each and every year, I find that I am anything but disappointed with the final result, and if the Cubs can pull through then you’ll be witnessing history!
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