TOP PLAYS — ALCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the American League Championship Series edition:

#5. Coming in at #5 is the improbable performance of Ryan Merritt who pitched 4 ⅓ innings of 2 hit ball in only his second career start to propel the Cleveland Indians to a series’ clinching Game Five win over Toronto. While only his double play off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion in the bottom of the 4th made the top plays’ list, his overall performance was beyond impressive and every inning he was able to eat was enough to extend the bullpen and help them enter their World Series matchup well rested.  

Encarnacion double play ball: *wWPA: 6% **wWE: 83%

At 0:30

#4. With the Blue Jays down 3-0 in the series, Donaldson came through in the bottom of the 3rd inning in Game 4 with a solo HR off Cy Young candidate, Corey Kluber. The reigning MVP of the AL gave the Blue Jays a lead that they would hold on to and extended the series with one swing of the bat on a 2-2 count.

*wWPA: 12% **wWE: 63%

#3. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller were brilliant throughout the playoffs and Game 2 of the ALCS was their finest moment. Miller struck out five of the six hitters he faced for two perfect innings on just 24 pitches; Allen struck out two of the three hitters he faced for a perfect ninth inning and the save. The moment that landed at #3 here was Allen’s strikeout of Edwin Encarnacion in the top of the ninth; Allen faced the heart of the order in the ninth, catching Edwin looking on a full count, Bautista swinging for a strikeout, and got Tulowitzki to fly out to center field.

*wWPA: 8% **wWE: 90%

#2. Facing a 2-2 count in the top of the sixth inning and the game tied at 2 runs apiece, Jason Kipnis took Stroman deep to right field to breakout of his slump and put the Indians on top. With the bullpen in rare form, one run was more than enough for the Indians in the postseason and therefore this clutch solo shot made it to #2 on the list.

*wWPA: 16% **wWE: 66%

#1. By far the most pivotal moment, based on the statistics in question, in the ALCS was all the way back in Game 1. Francisco Lindor kicked off Game 1 on the right foot for the Indians driving an 0-2 pitch over the right center field wall and plating Jason Kipnis for an early 2-0 lead.  

Those two runs ended up being the only runs in the ballgame and the Indians carried that momentum to a near sweep of the Blue Jays.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 82%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

From Heroes to Zeroes in 3 Steps

Over the past 50 years, the MLB postseason format has changed drastically and finishing the season with the best record no longer guarantees that a team will advance to the World Series.  The 2016 Texas Rangers understand this all too well as they saw their dreams dashed in consecutive games in the American League Division Series by, this year’s AL Wild Card winners, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Despite their American League leading win/loss record (95-67), the Rangers were riddled with flaws that were easily exposed by the stiff postseason competition.  

So why exactly did the Rangers fail to live up to their hype in the 2016 postseason?  Here are the three reasons the Rangers are at home in Arlington - and not to host an ALCS game.

Bad Pitching

The regular season numbers don’t paint a picture of just how underwhelming the Rangers pitching was this season, considering they led the American League in Wins and Saves.  However, they were also among the worst in the league in ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.369) as a team and their relief pitchers combined for 17 blown saves.  Certainly, the Rangers have to be pleased with the production from Cole Hamels in his first full season with the team (15-5, with a 3.32 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning), and Yu Darvish - even with his short DL stint - coming back from Tommy John surgery looked to be the same dominant strikeout pitcher.  Still, the Rangers’ weakness was evident in their ALDS matchup as their pitching staff gave up an average of 7 runs a game to the Toronto Blue Jays and failed to close out Game 3 losing in extra innings.

Trade Deadline Mishaps

Pitching was, as it always is, a hot commodity at the trade deadline and the names that ended up in Texas were not among the coveted options on the market.  To be fair, there weren’t a lot of aces up for grabs, but the Rangers could have found help.  Matt Moore was traded to the Giants and threw a no-hitter, as well as a solid playoff game for them; Ivan Nova threw 3 complete games for the Pirates and went 5-2 in eleven starts after being acquired from the Yankees; and Rich Hill just pitched six innings of two hit ball to lead the Dodgers to a 2-1 lead in the NLCS over the Cubs in Game 3.  The Rangers did improve their offense at the trade deadline acquiring Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, but the offense wasn’t necessarily the problem as the team ranked 6th in both Runs and RBIs over the first half of the season - and both Lucroy and Beltran are free agents this offseason meaning their half year rental was for naught.

Poor Management

Prince Fielder started 89 games for the Rangers in 2016, and, as good as Prince has been, that was 89 too many games.  Prince was clearly not himself all season long - slugging a measly .334 with just 8 home runs - and was eventually forced to retire for medical reasons, and yet the Rangers kept going back to him time and time again.  It’s hard to bench a guy that was an All-Star and an MVP candidate just one year ago, but the Rangers were clearly headed to the postseason and they had an heir apparent waiting in the minor league wings in Joey Gallo.  However, the Texas Rangers are stubborn and while they continue to tell teams that Joey Gallo is off limits as each trade deadline approaches, they failed to take advantage of a perfect time to get his bat into the lineup.  Of course, to their credit, the Rangers did find 90 games for their other brilliant prospect, Jurickson Profar, but that was mainly due to injuries to Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mitch Moreland as well as the defensive versatility that Profar brings to the club.

Despite winning their 95 wins, the Rangers have to be disappointed in their 2016 campaign and they’ll need to make a big splash in free agency this offseason if they don’t want to continue that trend in 2017.