TOP PLAYS — WORLD SERIES

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. World Series edition:

***Disclaimer: Narrowing the top plays in the 2016 World Series down to five was practically impossible and those seven games were some of the best baseball that has ever been played***

#5. With the Cubs down 3-1 in the series and already staring down an early 1-0 deficit in Game 5, Kris Bryant got just enough of the 1-1 pitch from Trevor Bauer to get up and over the ivy in left field and start a fourth inning rally that would extend the series to a sixth game.   

*wWPA: 14% **wWE: 56%

#4. Later in Game 5, Aroldis Chapman put together one of the best postseason relief performances ever when he came into pitch the final 2 ⅔ innings — giving up just one hit while striking out four batters. Chapman inherited a runner in scoring position in the seventh and didn’t falter, but his most impressive moment came in the top of the eighth when he was able to strike out the hot-hitting Lindor looking with the speedy Rajai Davis just 90 feet from tying the game.

*wWPA: 9% **wWE: 87%

#3. In Game 3, with the series tied at a game a piece, Cody Allen continued his absolute dominance in the postseason as he slammed the door shut on the Cubs striking out Javier Baez. Baez had worked a 2-2 count with runners in scoring position on second and third, and Allen was able to get him to chase a fastball high and outside to end the game and secure his sixth save of the playoffs.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 100%

#2. Coming in at #2, believe it or not, is the game-winning hit in the seventh, and final, game of the World Series. Ben Zobrist (0 for 4 in the game to that point) came through with one out and a 1-2 count when he slapped a single to the opposite field and drove in the go-ahead run earning World Series MVP honors in the process. Unfortunately for Zobrist, that still wasn’t the most pivotal moment in the World Series (although he got his second ring, so he’s probably not too upset).

*wWPA: 31% **wWE: 89%

#1. The most pivotal/clutch moment of the World Series was also the most surprising. Rajai Davis came up to bat with 2 outs and a runner on second base in the bottom of the eighth and with none other than Aroldis Chapman firing from sixty feet six inches away; Rajai who hit a career high 12 HRs during the regular season worked a 2-2 count and reached over the plate to pull a line drive down the line that barely cleared the left field wall and tied the game at 6-6. The momentum shifted in that improbable moment, and an already exciting Game 7 turned into one of the greatest baseball games of all-time.

*wWPA: -39% **wWE: 47%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added — The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy — The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

From Heroes to Zeroes in 3 Steps

Over the past 50 years, the MLB postseason format has changed drastically and finishing the season with the best record no longer guarantees that a team will advance to the World Series.  The 2016 Texas Rangers understand this all too well as they saw their dreams dashed in consecutive games in the American League Division Series by, this year’s AL Wild Card winners, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Despite their American League leading win/loss record (95-67), the Rangers were riddled with flaws that were easily exposed by the stiff postseason competition.  

So why exactly did the Rangers fail to live up to their hype in the 2016 postseason?  Here are the three reasons the Rangers are at home in Arlington - and not to host an ALCS game.

Bad Pitching

The regular season numbers don’t paint a picture of just how underwhelming the Rangers pitching was this season, considering they led the American League in Wins and Saves.  However, they were also among the worst in the league in ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.369) as a team and their relief pitchers combined for 17 blown saves.  Certainly, the Rangers have to be pleased with the production from Cole Hamels in his first full season with the team (15-5, with a 3.32 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning), and Yu Darvish - even with his short DL stint - coming back from Tommy John surgery looked to be the same dominant strikeout pitcher.  Still, the Rangers’ weakness was evident in their ALDS matchup as their pitching staff gave up an average of 7 runs a game to the Toronto Blue Jays and failed to close out Game 3 losing in extra innings.

Trade Deadline Mishaps

Pitching was, as it always is, a hot commodity at the trade deadline and the names that ended up in Texas were not among the coveted options on the market.  To be fair, there weren’t a lot of aces up for grabs, but the Rangers could have found help.  Matt Moore was traded to the Giants and threw a no-hitter, as well as a solid playoff game for them; Ivan Nova threw 3 complete games for the Pirates and went 5-2 in eleven starts after being acquired from the Yankees; and Rich Hill just pitched six innings of two hit ball to lead the Dodgers to a 2-1 lead in the NLCS over the Cubs in Game 3.  The Rangers did improve their offense at the trade deadline acquiring Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, but the offense wasn’t necessarily the problem as the team ranked 6th in both Runs and RBIs over the first half of the season - and both Lucroy and Beltran are free agents this offseason meaning their half year rental was for naught.

Poor Management

Prince Fielder started 89 games for the Rangers in 2016, and, as good as Prince has been, that was 89 too many games.  Prince was clearly not himself all season long - slugging a measly .334 with just 8 home runs - and was eventually forced to retire for medical reasons, and yet the Rangers kept going back to him time and time again.  It’s hard to bench a guy that was an All-Star and an MVP candidate just one year ago, but the Rangers were clearly headed to the postseason and they had an heir apparent waiting in the minor league wings in Joey Gallo.  However, the Texas Rangers are stubborn and while they continue to tell teams that Joey Gallo is off limits as each trade deadline approaches, they failed to take advantage of a perfect time to get his bat into the lineup.  Of course, to their credit, the Rangers did find 90 games for their other brilliant prospect, Jurickson Profar, but that was mainly due to injuries to Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mitch Moreland as well as the defensive versatility that Profar brings to the club.

Despite winning their 95 wins, the Rangers have to be disappointed in their 2016 campaign and they’ll need to make a big splash in free agency this offseason if they don’t want to continue that trend in 2017.

The "Baby Bombers"?

New York Yankees

Current Record: 65-61 (3rd in AL East)

Projected Record (according to FanGraphs): 83-79 (3rd in AL East)

*RPI (Relative Power Index from ESPN.com): 0.506 (12th in MLB)

The Yankees have 36 games left this season (as I write this) and have spent most of the season until this point hovering around .500. Their inconsistencies have been glaring and their age has finally caught up to them in 2016. However, with a month of the season left, the Yankees seem to have found a way to flip the script turning their Bronx Bombers into the Baby Bombers.

The Yankees have battled injuries all season long, nowhere more evident than the revolving door at 1B. Teixeira has made a few DL stints this season, but even when he has been manning “the other hot corner”, he has been incredibly ineffective posting a .197 AVG with 89 Ks and 10 HRs in 90 games. To put that into perspective, Gary Sanchez has 9 HRs in his first 19 games. At the end of May and into June, Teixeira, Dustin Ackley, Chris Parmelee, Rob Refsnyder each made a start at 1B landing on the DL one after another and ending the seasons of Ackley and Parmelee. The Yanks even tossed around the idea of starting ARod or bringing up Swisher from AAA, before giving Ike Davis a shot (that lasted all of 8 games). Beyond that glaring situation, the starting pitching (besides Tanaka and a few surprising starts from Sabathia) hasn’t been good, and they traded away two of the best closers in baseball at the deadline. So what’s in store for the team from the Bronx?

Smoldering or Extinguished?

SMOLDERING! The Yanks are poised for a new dynasty and the Youth Movement, masterfully constructed by Brian Cashman and led by Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, is quickly drawing comparisons to the Core 4 (Pettitte, Posada, Jeter, Rivera) that brought the Yankees remarkable success in the late 90s. Even after a trade deadline that saw the Yanks become “sellers” for the first time ever, they’re scoring runs at a much higher clip already with more HRs in August than any one month this season so far. Their faith in Betances is also paying off as he has rewarded their trust with 6 saves in August.

Is there a chance for a spark?

Even though the Yankees are on a huge upswing and the excitement is palpable, they still can’t seem to get on a roll. They’ve won or tied 6 of their last 7 series, but are still barely above .500 and still 5 games back in the Wild Card race. Baltimore and Toronto sit on top of the Wild Card standings with Boston at the top of the AL East and, with 23 of their 36 games against those three teams, there is a lot of potential for shifts in the standings over the past few weeks of the season. It’s becoming extremely likely that three AL East teams will make the playoffs this season (two of them competing in the play-in game), but I see the Yanks falling just short of the postseason this year.

When will it rekindle?

I think we are watching the Yankees rekindle right now, and I love that they aren’t waiting until Spring Training next season to see what they have in their young talent. Sanchez, who has set a Yankees record for most HRs in his first 19 games, has caught 5 base runners stealing in just 105 innings and is being praised by the starting rotation; Aaron Judge and Tyler Austen hit back-to-back HRs in their first MLB at bats, becoming the first duo to accomplish that feat in the history of baseball; Chad Green threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball on August 15th and racked up 11 K’s (he has an incredible 10.3 K/9 and a 12 percent Swinging Strike percentage — according to FanGraphs). Although I’m hopeful (as a Yankees fan), I don’t see the Yankees overcoming their AL East foes and making it to October, but the lineup is really shaping up and if Green, Luis Severino, and Luis Cessa can pull it together to join Pineda (whose peripherals have been serviceable this season despite his lousy record) and Tanaka (who has been lights out, especially on extra rest) then this Yankees team is a World Series contender next season and beyond.  

Fantasy Embers

Rest of season I think it’s going to be tough to figure out which Yankees to sit/start because Girardi is trying to infuse that lineup with youth and that will only increase when the rosters expand in September. You definitely have to start Sanchez, Tanaka, Betances — they are sure things and should be 100 percent owned and 100 percent started. Gregorius and Castro have been solid, especially lately, and Judge will put up some big numbers as well, and if the Yankees stay in the Wild Card race then you can assume they will all be in the lineup every day. If you’re in a dynasty/keeper league then I think you need to consider investing heavily in the Yankees — there should be spots on your team for Sanchez, Judge, Tanaka, Pineda, and potentially for Gregorius, Castro, Bird, Green, Severino, Cessa as fliers for next season. Lastly, Mason Williams, who might get a chance to make an appearance in September, could play a role in 2017 and will definitely be their everyday CF in 2018 and beyond — he is worth a look as a stash if you have a NA slot for Rookies.

* - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

Throwing out the first pitch!

ARod is no longer a Yankee and has informed us, through his publicist, that he is not going to play again in 2016 (Brett Favre anyone?). Hence, the Baseball world needs a new Mr. September! Why?  Well, I think we can all agree there will never be another Mr. October (Reggie) or Mr. November (DJ).  There’s also no denying the suspense and excitement of the MLB Playoffs.  However, with the prolonged postseason and a meaningless All Star Game each year, the MOST exciting time of the year for Baseball is the last few weeks of the season (the last few weeks of September).  If you don’t believe me, let me remind you of a few of the exciting revelations of, my birth month, September: division battles, extended 40 man rosters, late season rallies/failures, unsung heroes/zeroes.

That's why I'm here to act as your Mr. September, your guide, as the season comes to a close.  Who's going to finish strong?  What manager is going to blow it?  What player is going to step out of the shadows? I have all the answers, the embers if you will (or at least I'll pretend to for the next 4 weeks).  Which embers will burn bright and ignite a new fire to blaze through the postseason and beyond?  Which embers will sizzle and fade away leaving a blemish of failure?  Follow me and you might just find out!  

PLAY BALL!!