TOP PLAYS — WORLD SERIES

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. World Series edition:

***Disclaimer: Narrowing the top plays in the 2016 World Series down to five was practically impossible and those seven games were some of the best baseball that has ever been played***

#5. With the Cubs down 3-1 in the series and already staring down an early 1-0 deficit in Game 5, Kris Bryant got just enough of the 1-1 pitch from Trevor Bauer to get up and over the ivy in left field and start a fourth inning rally that would extend the series to a sixth game.   

*wWPA: 14% **wWE: 56%

#4. Later in Game 5, Aroldis Chapman put together one of the best postseason relief performances ever when he came into pitch the final 2 ⅔ innings — giving up just one hit while striking out four batters. Chapman inherited a runner in scoring position in the seventh and didn’t falter, but his most impressive moment came in the top of the eighth when he was able to strike out the hot-hitting Lindor looking with the speedy Rajai Davis just 90 feet from tying the game.

*wWPA: 9% **wWE: 87%

#3. In Game 3, with the series tied at a game a piece, Cody Allen continued his absolute dominance in the postseason as he slammed the door shut on the Cubs striking out Javier Baez. Baez had worked a 2-2 count with runners in scoring position on second and third, and Allen was able to get him to chase a fastball high and outside to end the game and secure his sixth save of the playoffs.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 100%

#2. Coming in at #2, believe it or not, is the game-winning hit in the seventh, and final, game of the World Series. Ben Zobrist (0 for 4 in the game to that point) came through with one out and a 1-2 count when he slapped a single to the opposite field and drove in the go-ahead run earning World Series MVP honors in the process. Unfortunately for Zobrist, that still wasn’t the most pivotal moment in the World Series (although he got his second ring, so he’s probably not too upset).

*wWPA: 31% **wWE: 89%

#1. The most pivotal/clutch moment of the World Series was also the most surprising. Rajai Davis came up to bat with 2 outs and a runner on second base in the bottom of the eighth and with none other than Aroldis Chapman firing from sixty feet six inches away; Rajai who hit a career high 12 HRs during the regular season worked a 2-2 count and reached over the plate to pull a line drive down the line that barely cleared the left field wall and tied the game at 6-6. The momentum shifted in that improbable moment, and an already exciting Game 7 turned into one of the greatest baseball games of all-time.

*wWPA: -39% **wWE: 47%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added — The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy — The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

TOP PLAYS — NLCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the National League Championship Series edition:

#5. After dropping two games in a row to the Dodgers, the Cubbies came out swinging against the rookie Julio Urias. The rally in the top of the fourth featured 3 of the top 5 plays in Game 4. Zobrist, Baez and Contreras each singled to start the fourth inning and Russell later hit a two-run HR to help the Cubs take a 4 run lead into the second half of the game. It was the Contreras single that made it into the top 5 plays here as well as the subsequent RBI, which was the first run scored by the Cubs.

Contreras RBI single: *wWPA: 16% **wWE: 77%

#4. After a Game 1 loss, Kenley Jansen was able to save Game 2 for the Dodgers who managed only a single run for insurance. Jansen came in for a tough two inning save and slammed the door shut recording two perfect innings with 4 strikeouts. The Dexter Fowler strikeout makes the top 5 list which makes since considering Bryant and Rizzo were chomping at the bit for a game-tying RBI (it just so happens that Jansen retired Bryant and Rizzo as well).

Dexter Fowler K: *wWPA: 9% **wWE: 89%

At 1:43

#3. In Game 5, with the series tied at 2 games a piece, it was Addison Russell who came up huge again for Chicago. With one out and Baez on second base in the top of the sixth inning, Russell hit the second pitch he saw from veteran Joe Blanton over the right center field fence for his second HR in as many games (you can hear John Smoltz and Joe Buck debating whether or not LA would pitch to Russell in the background).

*wWPA: 25% **wWE: 78%

#2. The top two plays from the NLCS were in the dramatic series opener. Both teams waited until the eighth inning to amp of the excitement, but they certainly didn’t disappoint. After watching Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman come in and strikeout both Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig with the bases loaded, Adrian Gonzalez dug in and punched a single through the middle on a 1-1 count to even the game at 3-3 with his two RBIs.

*wWPA: -31% **wWE: 50%

#1. Not to be outdone, Miguel Montero came in as a pinch hitter for Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the eighth to inject his own bases loaded magic. Montero (who was 0-4 in the NLDS against the Giants) delivered with a two-out Grand Slam to put the game away for the Cubs. In fact, Blanton only needed one more strike to push this game to the ninth inning and give the Dodgers offense a chance, but he left the pitch right over the middle of the plate and Montero made him pay.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 99%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.