TOP PLAYS — WORLD SERIES

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. World Series edition:

***Disclaimer: Narrowing the top plays in the 2016 World Series down to five was practically impossible and those seven games were some of the best baseball that has ever been played***

#5. With the Cubs down 3-1 in the series and already staring down an early 1-0 deficit in Game 5, Kris Bryant got just enough of the 1-1 pitch from Trevor Bauer to get up and over the ivy in left field and start a fourth inning rally that would extend the series to a sixth game.   

*wWPA: 14% **wWE: 56%

#4. Later in Game 5, Aroldis Chapman put together one of the best postseason relief performances ever when he came into pitch the final 2 ⅔ innings — giving up just one hit while striking out four batters. Chapman inherited a runner in scoring position in the seventh and didn’t falter, but his most impressive moment came in the top of the eighth when he was able to strike out the hot-hitting Lindor looking with the speedy Rajai Davis just 90 feet from tying the game.

*wWPA: 9% **wWE: 87%

#3. In Game 3, with the series tied at a game a piece, Cody Allen continued his absolute dominance in the postseason as he slammed the door shut on the Cubs striking out Javier Baez. Baez had worked a 2-2 count with runners in scoring position on second and third, and Allen was able to get him to chase a fastball high and outside to end the game and secure his sixth save of the playoffs.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 100%

#2. Coming in at #2, believe it or not, is the game-winning hit in the seventh, and final, game of the World Series. Ben Zobrist (0 for 4 in the game to that point) came through with one out and a 1-2 count when he slapped a single to the opposite field and drove in the go-ahead run earning World Series MVP honors in the process. Unfortunately for Zobrist, that still wasn’t the most pivotal moment in the World Series (although he got his second ring, so he’s probably not too upset).

*wWPA: 31% **wWE: 89%

#1. The most pivotal/clutch moment of the World Series was also the most surprising. Rajai Davis came up to bat with 2 outs and a runner on second base in the bottom of the eighth and with none other than Aroldis Chapman firing from sixty feet six inches away; Rajai who hit a career high 12 HRs during the regular season worked a 2-2 count and reached over the plate to pull a line drive down the line that barely cleared the left field wall and tied the game at 6-6. The momentum shifted in that improbable moment, and an already exciting Game 7 turned into one of the greatest baseball games of all-time.

*wWPA: -39% **wWE: 47%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added — The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy — The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

TOP PLAYS — ALCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the American League Championship Series edition:

#5. Coming in at #5 is the improbable performance of Ryan Merritt who pitched 4 ⅓ innings of 2 hit ball in only his second career start to propel the Cleveland Indians to a series’ clinching Game Five win over Toronto. While only his double play off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion in the bottom of the 4th made the top plays’ list, his overall performance was beyond impressive and every inning he was able to eat was enough to extend the bullpen and help them enter their World Series matchup well rested.  

Encarnacion double play ball: *wWPA: 6% **wWE: 83%

At 0:30

#4. With the Blue Jays down 3-0 in the series, Donaldson came through in the bottom of the 3rd inning in Game 4 with a solo HR off Cy Young candidate, Corey Kluber. The reigning MVP of the AL gave the Blue Jays a lead that they would hold on to and extended the series with one swing of the bat on a 2-2 count.

*wWPA: 12% **wWE: 63%

#3. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller were brilliant throughout the playoffs and Game 2 of the ALCS was their finest moment. Miller struck out five of the six hitters he faced for two perfect innings on just 24 pitches; Allen struck out two of the three hitters he faced for a perfect ninth inning and the save. The moment that landed at #3 here was Allen’s strikeout of Edwin Encarnacion in the top of the ninth; Allen faced the heart of the order in the ninth, catching Edwin looking on a full count, Bautista swinging for a strikeout, and got Tulowitzki to fly out to center field.

*wWPA: 8% **wWE: 90%

#2. Facing a 2-2 count in the top of the sixth inning and the game tied at 2 runs apiece, Jason Kipnis took Stroman deep to right field to breakout of his slump and put the Indians on top. With the bullpen in rare form, one run was more than enough for the Indians in the postseason and therefore this clutch solo shot made it to #2 on the list.

*wWPA: 16% **wWE: 66%

#1. By far the most pivotal moment, based on the statistics in question, in the ALCS was all the way back in Game 1. Francisco Lindor kicked off Game 1 on the right foot for the Indians driving an 0-2 pitch over the right center field wall and plating Jason Kipnis for an early 2-0 lead.  

Those two runs ended up being the only runs in the ballgame and the Indians carried that momentum to a near sweep of the Blue Jays.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 82%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

They're GRRREEAATT!

Detroit Tigers

Current Record: 63-54 (2nd in AL Central)

Projected Record: 86-76 (2nd in AL Central) *

RPI: .511 (10th in MLB) **

The Tigers finished first in the AL Central in 2011, 12, 13, and 14, but have not been able to turn their mini-dynasty into a World Series Championship. This year, while expectations are certainly still high, Tigers fans have been guarded and afraid to get burned again after an incredibly disappointing 2015 campaign and who could blame them. Four seasons of tremendous baseball, including four first place finishes, one pennant (2012), 3 AL MVPs (Justin Verlander — 2011, Miguel Cabrera — 2012,13), and 2 AL Cy Young Award winners (Verlander — 2011, Max Scherzer — 2013), and no World Series titles to show for it. It’s tough to believe that a team with so much talent would have such a hard time coming through in the clutch, and, unfortunately, it seems as if they could be destined to repeat their miserable mistakes again this year.

Smoldering or Extinguished?

Believe it or not, I’m still on board with the Tigers and so I’m going to say they’re smoldering. They are absolutely not playing their best baseball right now and they need to turn it around (4-6 in their last 10 games), however their end of season schedule is a cakewalk compared to the other teams vying for the Wild Card. Eight of the Tigers last eighteen games this season are against the two worst teams in MLB (Twins and Braves) and they have three more against the Royals, who are on a three-game losing streak and have lost six of the last ten games. The Tigers are also the healthiest they’ve been all season and are about to get Nick Castellanos back this week or next, so they are poised for a hot streak.  

Is there a chance for a spark?

Yes, and the spark needs to happen now! Luckily for Tigers fans, the stat projections and DFS (FanGraphs — Daily Fantasy Projections ***) values are predicting it will. Five Tigers hitters were listed in the top 30 of DFS rankings from Wednesday with Miguel Cabrera and JD Martinez cracking the top 5. The same cannot be said of the Tigers rotation, at least not as a whole. Mike Pelfrey wasn’t getting any love from the DFS projections coming in as the third worst pitching option for last night’s game, which was a good call as Pelfrey only survived 1 ⅔ innings giving up four runs on 5 hits. In September, the Tigers have given up at least five runs in eight of their thirteen games. On the bright side, Justin Verlander seems to be back to his Cy Young days (currently 12th in MLB in WAR and throwing 200 innings already this season) and Michael Fulmer seems like a lock for AL Rookie of the Year. In fact, the only worry about Michael Fulmer was his longevity and Brad Ausmus confirmed that the Tigers will not skip any of his starts going forward (a topic that has been debated all season long). At this point, there’s no catching Cleveland for the AL Central title, but the Wild Card is well within their grasp. The biggest obstacle for the Tigers going forward is themselves. I believe if they win they’re in. The AL East seems to be taking care of themselves and I’m starting to believe only one of those teams will end up with a Wild Card spot, which means the Tigers could easily sneak in for the other as long as the red hot Seattle Mariners cool off a bit.

When will it rekindle?

The answer is NOW. The Tigers are a great team and I think they are at a tipping point right now, but maybe just a little too late in the season for it to work out for this postseason. With that said, I think 2017 could be a huge year for them! Cleveland won’t be any worse, but neither will Detroit. The only key FA loss they will be suffering in 2017 is Francisco Rodriguez. Although he’s been fantastic this season, the Tigers bullpen is strong on the back end and they could easily get away with either of the Wilsons (Alex or Justin) in the closer role or pick up one of the top FAs this offseason (Chapman, Melancon, Jensen). The only thing you have to wonder/worry about if you’re a Tigers fan next season, is which version of the team will show up and will they stay healthy. JD Martinez has been unstoppable since coming off the DL and Cabrera and Upton have been coming on strong over the last couple of months. However, Cabrera will be another year older and he’ll still have to play in the field with Victor Martinez locking up the DH spot. Cameron Maybin may or may not be the answer for the final OF spot in Detroit, but we won’t know if he can’t stay healthy. The infield still seems like it is locked up with Castellanos, Kinsler, Cabrera, and Iglesias, but they also have some depth with rookie Jacoby Jones making a bit of a splash in Detroit with his speed and athleticism (worth noting that Jones is also starting in CF last night, so that may add on to my questions about Maybin for next year). Lastly, there are obvious reasons to be excited about Verlander’s huge comeback this year and it feels great to pencil in Verlander and Fulmer at the top of that 2017 rotation, however if I’m in the Tigers organization I’m crossing the fingers on my other hand while I do that. Verlander’s health and Fulmer’s youth will be the biggest question marks heading into next season and probably the two things that will make or break them in 2017.

Fantasy Embers

The top Detroit hitters will continue to be considered for a stack in DFS formats, especially with their easy schedule going forward. My favorite of the bunch is JD Martinez; the guy has been on fire since coming off the DL and he has been the unsung hero for Detroit since breaking out in 2014. Fulmer and Verlander are still on my list of must-starts, although if the Tigers fall out of the Wild Card I’m not entirely sure Fulmer will be remain in the rotation as Ausmus has promised. How could I forget Ian Kinsler? I barely mentioned him by name above, and maybe that’s because he is the most consistent if not always the flashiest. He’s only the sixth best 2B this season, according to FanGraphs WAR calculations (Wins Above Replacement), but he’s 19th among all hitters which shows how strong the 2B position has been this season. Lastly, you have to have K-Rod (Francisco Rodriguez) in your lineups considering the Tigers need to win some games down the stretch. K-Rod is ranked 4th in the league in Saves, despite his pretty pedestrian K/9 (7.62) and BB/9 (3.31), so while he may not do wonders for your Ks, ERA, and WHIP categories, he will certainly get you a few more saves and perhaps a random win or two.

* — projected standings are courtesy of Fangraphs.com

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

*** - FanGraphs — Daily Fantasy Projections

Math Schmath ...

Sports are universally enjoyed by people all over the world for a variety of reasons. Some people love the competition and the high stakes drama; some people love the drama of the player’s personal lives; some people are introduced to sports at a young age and follow along with the family fanaticism. Personally, I love sports because, within their constraints, individuals often find ways to defy the laws of physics and math and push the limits of the human body beyond the unfathomable. One of my favorite plays in baseball (and your favorite according to the recent poll on this blog) is the steal of home. The most exciting thing about it is that anyone was ever crazy enough to think it was a good idea.

The act of stealing home requires two key characteristics that Jackie Robinson, in the previous video, was widely known for: superior athleticism and absolute commitment. Even if I didn't mention it, it's blatantly obvious if you take a look at the field and the players. The pitcher's mound is closer to home plate than 3rd base (60' 6" vs 90") and a 90 mph fastball takes far less time to get to the plate than a runner at top speed (. 4 seconds vs 4.4 seconds). On the face of it, the math doesn't compute at all. And yet …

Alright, I know what you're thinking, and I agree, I've ignored the variables here too long. First of all, the steal of home rarely takes place unless there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound (notice both videos above). This is because the left handed pitcher, pitching from the stretch (typical when there are runners on base), has his back to the runner on third base and has to rely on his peripheral eyesight and defense to keep the runner close. You'll notice, in the next video, how it only takes a split second of lost concentration or distraction to make all the difference.

As you just saw, an element of planned distraction is often employed when attempting the steal of home. This can be simply the runner on third acting a little lackadaisical to lull the pitcher and defense into falsely believing he has no intention of going anywhere. It can also be a second runner on the base paths causing havoc. If there is a runner on first base, as well as the runner on third, then the pitcher has to split his attention three ways (the two runners and the batter). To make matters worse, if he’s a left-handed pitcher, as we discussed above, then the runner on first is in his vision at all times and will most definitely cause confusion.

Sometimes it’s just a matter of poor execution. In the previous clip, with two outs the White Sox wanted to just throw the runner out at second and have the inning be over with. However, when the runner slowed down early on the base paths their plan was foiled and it gave the Yankees the opportunity to score the tying run. It not only takes a lot of preparation to complete the steal of home, but also to defend it. You never want to let another runner get to second base, but you definitely don’t want to let a run score like that. I think coaches tend to underestimate opponents when it comes to low-probability plays like the steal of home, and that’s exactly why it works sometimes. One thing is for sure, it’s always exciting and you’re always left wondering how the defense could “let” that happen. Well, hindsight is 20/20 after all, and Math isn’t always so cut and dry when you add all the variables.

So enjoy one of the best plays in baseball!