TOP PLAYS - NLDS/WC

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball!  This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years.  Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look.  Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs.  Here is the National League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:

#5. These next two moments weren’t necessarily in fifth place in terms of wWPA and wWE, but they were definitely on the list.  The reason why they sit at #5 on the list is due to rarity of the situation and the fact that these two pitchers helped themselves and their team go on to win their respective games.  After taking over for Kyle Hendricks (who gave up two runs in 3 ⅔ innings on four hits), Travis Wood not only got four outs (2 strikeouts) without giving up a hit or a walk, but he extended the Cubs lead with a solo HR (just the 2nd reliever to hit a HR in the postseason.  Not to be outdone, Jake Arrieta helped himself out by launching a three run blast off of (another HR hitting pitcher) Madison Bumgarner in the top of the second inning in Game 3 against the Giants.  The bomb put the Cubs up 3-0, and although the Giants eventually marched back to take Game 3 with a score of 6-5 these pitchers certainly helped to kick start a stagnant Cubs offense.  Also, with Arrieta’s HR, the Cubs became just the second team in history to have two pitchers hit HRs in the same postseason.

Wood HR - *wWPA: 8% **wWE: 86%

Arrieta HR - *wWPA: -27% **wWE: 24%

#4. With only seven total hits in Game 1 between the Giants and Cubs heading into the bottom of the eighth, Cubs’ youngster Javier Baez came up huge hitting what would become the game winning HR well over the ivy in left field off of starter Johnny Cueto.  Up until that point in the game, Cueto had given up only two hits and had struck out nine in 7 ⅓ innings.

*wWPA: 30% **wWE: 86%

#3. Washington’s unlikely hero of Game 2 against LA was Jose Lobaton.  In the fourth inning with Washington trailing by two runs, Lobaton sat on a hanging curve from veteran Rich Hill and drove it over the left centerfield wall.  Lobaton’s 3 RBIs put the Nationals up for good in the game and even the series at a game a piece.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 65%

#2. The first of Conor Gillaspie’s heroic offerings came in the top of the ninth in the Giants’ Wild Card play-in game against the Mets.  With runners on first and second and one out, Gillaspie took Mets’ closer, Jeurys Familia, deep to right to give San Francisco a three run lead with just ½ inning left to play.

*wWPA: 38% **wWE: 96%

#1. In the bottom of the eighth inning with two runners on in Game 3 of the NLDS, Conor Gillaspie became a hero again as he crushed a triple to deep right centerfield off of the Cubs’ closer, Aroldis Chapman.  On a single swing of the bat, Gillaspie drove in two runs to give the Giants the lead and also put himself in scoring position with just one out in the inning.  Gillaspie would score on the next at-bat on a Brandon Crawford single up the middle to extend the Giants lead.

*wWPA: 50% **wWE: 91%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

Math Schmath ...

Sports are universally enjoyed by people all over the world for a variety of reasons. Some people love the competition and the high stakes drama; some people love the drama of the player’s personal lives; some people are introduced to sports at a young age and follow along with the family fanaticism. Personally, I love sports because, within their constraints, individuals often find ways to defy the laws of physics and math and push the limits of the human body beyond the unfathomable. One of my favorite plays in baseball (and your favorite according to the recent poll on this blog) is the steal of home. The most exciting thing about it is that anyone was ever crazy enough to think it was a good idea.

The act of stealing home requires two key characteristics that Jackie Robinson, in the previous video, was widely known for: superior athleticism and absolute commitment. Even if I didn't mention it, it's blatantly obvious if you take a look at the field and the players. The pitcher's mound is closer to home plate than 3rd base (60' 6" vs 90") and a 90 mph fastball takes far less time to get to the plate than a runner at top speed (. 4 seconds vs 4.4 seconds). On the face of it, the math doesn't compute at all. And yet …

Alright, I know what you're thinking, and I agree, I've ignored the variables here too long. First of all, the steal of home rarely takes place unless there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound (notice both videos above). This is because the left handed pitcher, pitching from the stretch (typical when there are runners on base), has his back to the runner on third base and has to rely on his peripheral eyesight and defense to keep the runner close. You'll notice, in the next video, how it only takes a split second of lost concentration or distraction to make all the difference.

As you just saw, an element of planned distraction is often employed when attempting the steal of home. This can be simply the runner on third acting a little lackadaisical to lull the pitcher and defense into falsely believing he has no intention of going anywhere. It can also be a second runner on the base paths causing havoc. If there is a runner on first base, as well as the runner on third, then the pitcher has to split his attention three ways (the two runners and the batter). To make matters worse, if he’s a left-handed pitcher, as we discussed above, then the runner on first is in his vision at all times and will most definitely cause confusion.

Sometimes it’s just a matter of poor execution. In the previous clip, with two outs the White Sox wanted to just throw the runner out at second and have the inning be over with. However, when the runner slowed down early on the base paths their plan was foiled and it gave the Yankees the opportunity to score the tying run. It not only takes a lot of preparation to complete the steal of home, but also to defend it. You never want to let another runner get to second base, but you definitely don’t want to let a run score like that. I think coaches tend to underestimate opponents when it comes to low-probability plays like the steal of home, and that’s exactly why it works sometimes. One thing is for sure, it’s always exciting and you’re always left wondering how the defense could “let” that happen. Well, hindsight is 20/20 after all, and Math isn’t always so cut and dry when you add all the variables.

So enjoy one of the best plays in baseball!

One Moore Out!

On Thursday night (8/25/16), as I was dozing off in my bed I was alerted (I love notifications!)  that Matt Moore was entering the 8th inning against the Dodgers and was holding on to a no-hitter.  Since I live in NYC and the game was being played on the West Coast, I couldn’t convince myself to get out of bed at that moment, but I watched the game in the darkness on my phone.  Moore looked sharp and when Denard Span broke into a dead sprint and made a diving catch to save a hit for the first out in the ninth inning, I quickly leapt out of bed and turned the TV on in the living room.  

I’ve never seen a no-hitter in person, and I can only recall watching highlights of successful no-hitters over the years, so I was not going to miss my chance to watch this gem unfold in real time in front of my eyes (even if I was 3,000 miles away).  As Moore’s pitch count quickly climbed well over the 100 pitch threshold, I watched and listened as Vin Scully described the scene.  Bruce Bochy, the Giants Manager, felt the pressure!  His team is in playoff contention, he just traded to acquire Matt Moore to add pitching depth through the playoffs, and he was currently letting him pitch well beyond fatigue.  Although, as ball after ball was fouled back and out of play in that final inning, it was pretty evident that Matt Moore was going to go the distance.

With one out left in the ninth, Corey Seager (NL Rookie of the Year favorite) walked slowly to the plate.  The excitement was palpable and everyone in the ballpark was on their feet.  Corey swung at a high fastball with one of the most ferocious swings I’ve ever seen and whiffed.  That swing, although bringing Moore another strike closer to his goal, proved that Seager was not going down in history without a fight.  With two outs and a 1-1 count, Seager got jammed inside with a 94 mph fastball from Moore, but fought it out toward right field.  See for yourself:

It was heartbreaking!  Denard Span stood in CF with his hands on his head exasperated; Moore walked aimlessly around the mound as he waited for the ball to be thrown back in; Bochy made his predictable walk out to the mound to relieve Moore of his duties.  In the end, Moore left with a standing ovation from Dodger and Giant fans alike.  

There is no silver lining when a no-hitter gets broken up in this way.  However, I’d like to quickly offer my sympathy and console Moore with a few clichés.

You’re not the only one, Matt!

According to Stew Thornley of Milkees Press*, since 1961 there have been 38 no-hitters broken up with 2 outs in the ninth inning, 13 of which were actually on the way to becoming perfect games.  

Get ‘em next time champ!

In that same time span, there were 157 completed no-hitters and 148 no-hitters that were broken up in the ninth inning, which means that only 51.2% of no-hitters taken into the ninth inning have landed in the history books.  So according to history, the next time Matt takes a no-hitter into the ninth inning the math is on his side.

At least you’re not this guy!

Matt Moore should cross his fingers and knock on wood for the rest of his life so that he doesn’t become Dave Stieb.  Watch the video below to understand why.

In case it wasn’t obvious from the clip above, Dave Stieb worked two consecutive no-hitters (Sept 24th/Sept 30th in 1988) into the ninth inning and within one strike of his elusive goal only to watch it slip through his fingers.  He also took a no-hitter into the ninth inning four years earlier in 1985. In 1989, one season after his two consecutive almost no-hitters, he even took a perfect game into the ninth inning only to fall short of that as well.

There’s always a silver lining!

Even if Moore does pull a “Stieb”, he can take solace in the fact that Stieb did eventually get his no-hitter in 1990.  He also managed to set career records for the Blue Jays while going to 7 All Star games and winning a World Series ring.

Take a day off!

Last thing I want Matt to consider is taking a day off!  Go on vacation!  If/When you do, you should probably go away the weekend of Sept 24th (which just happens to be my Birthday).  Why? Well, of all the 38 no-hitters broken up with 2 outs in the ninth inning, only 5 were recorded on the same calendar day - 2 were broken up on June 7th (in 68’ and 07’) and 3 were broken up on September 24th (in 75’, 88’, 13’).  Oh and guess who was on the mound on September 24, 1988, none other than Dave Stieb.

Matt, just remember what Oscar Wilde said, “The Heart was made to be broken.” Thankfully, according to history, no-hitters are only meant to be broken up in the ninth 50 percent of the time.  

*no-hitter stats attributed to Stew Thornley at Milkees Press (http://milkeespress.com/lostninth.html)