TOP PLAYS — NLCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the National League Championship Series edition:

#5. After dropping two games in a row to the Dodgers, the Cubbies came out swinging against the rookie Julio Urias. The rally in the top of the fourth featured 3 of the top 5 plays in Game 4. Zobrist, Baez and Contreras each singled to start the fourth inning and Russell later hit a two-run HR to help the Cubs take a 4 run lead into the second half of the game. It was the Contreras single that made it into the top 5 plays here as well as the subsequent RBI, which was the first run scored by the Cubs.

Contreras RBI single: *wWPA: 16% **wWE: 77%

#4. After a Game 1 loss, Kenley Jansen was able to save Game 2 for the Dodgers who managed only a single run for insurance. Jansen came in for a tough two inning save and slammed the door shut recording two perfect innings with 4 strikeouts. The Dexter Fowler strikeout makes the top 5 list which makes since considering Bryant and Rizzo were chomping at the bit for a game-tying RBI (it just so happens that Jansen retired Bryant and Rizzo as well).

Dexter Fowler K: *wWPA: 9% **wWE: 89%

At 1:43

#3. In Game 5, with the series tied at 2 games a piece, it was Addison Russell who came up huge again for Chicago. With one out and Baez on second base in the top of the sixth inning, Russell hit the second pitch he saw from veteran Joe Blanton over the right center field fence for his second HR in as many games (you can hear John Smoltz and Joe Buck debating whether or not LA would pitch to Russell in the background).

*wWPA: 25% **wWE: 78%

#2. The top two plays from the NLCS were in the dramatic series opener. Both teams waited until the eighth inning to amp of the excitement, but they certainly didn’t disappoint. After watching Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman come in and strikeout both Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig with the bases loaded, Adrian Gonzalez dug in and punched a single through the middle on a 1-1 count to even the game at 3-3 with his two RBIs.

*wWPA: -31% **wWE: 50%

#1. Not to be outdone, Miguel Montero came in as a pinch hitter for Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the eighth to inject his own bases loaded magic. Montero (who was 0-4 in the NLDS against the Giants) delivered with a two-out Grand Slam to put the game away for the Cubs. In fact, Blanton only needed one more strike to push this game to the ninth inning and give the Dodgers offense a chance, but he left the pitch right over the middle of the plate and Montero made him pay.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 99%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

From Heroes to Zeroes in 3 Steps

Over the past 50 years, the MLB postseason format has changed drastically and finishing the season with the best record no longer guarantees that a team will advance to the World Series.  The 2016 Texas Rangers understand this all too well as they saw their dreams dashed in consecutive games in the American League Division Series by, this year’s AL Wild Card winners, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Despite their American League leading win/loss record (95-67), the Rangers were riddled with flaws that were easily exposed by the stiff postseason competition.  

So why exactly did the Rangers fail to live up to their hype in the 2016 postseason?  Here are the three reasons the Rangers are at home in Arlington - and not to host an ALCS game.

Bad Pitching

The regular season numbers don’t paint a picture of just how underwhelming the Rangers pitching was this season, considering they led the American League in Wins and Saves.  However, they were also among the worst in the league in ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.369) as a team and their relief pitchers combined for 17 blown saves.  Certainly, the Rangers have to be pleased with the production from Cole Hamels in his first full season with the team (15-5, with a 3.32 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning), and Yu Darvish - even with his short DL stint - coming back from Tommy John surgery looked to be the same dominant strikeout pitcher.  Still, the Rangers’ weakness was evident in their ALDS matchup as their pitching staff gave up an average of 7 runs a game to the Toronto Blue Jays and failed to close out Game 3 losing in extra innings.

Trade Deadline Mishaps

Pitching was, as it always is, a hot commodity at the trade deadline and the names that ended up in Texas were not among the coveted options on the market.  To be fair, there weren’t a lot of aces up for grabs, but the Rangers could have found help.  Matt Moore was traded to the Giants and threw a no-hitter, as well as a solid playoff game for them; Ivan Nova threw 3 complete games for the Pirates and went 5-2 in eleven starts after being acquired from the Yankees; and Rich Hill just pitched six innings of two hit ball to lead the Dodgers to a 2-1 lead in the NLCS over the Cubs in Game 3.  The Rangers did improve their offense at the trade deadline acquiring Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, but the offense wasn’t necessarily the problem as the team ranked 6th in both Runs and RBIs over the first half of the season - and both Lucroy and Beltran are free agents this offseason meaning their half year rental was for naught.

Poor Management

Prince Fielder started 89 games for the Rangers in 2016, and, as good as Prince has been, that was 89 too many games.  Prince was clearly not himself all season long - slugging a measly .334 with just 8 home runs - and was eventually forced to retire for medical reasons, and yet the Rangers kept going back to him time and time again.  It’s hard to bench a guy that was an All-Star and an MVP candidate just one year ago, but the Rangers were clearly headed to the postseason and they had an heir apparent waiting in the minor league wings in Joey Gallo.  However, the Texas Rangers are stubborn and while they continue to tell teams that Joey Gallo is off limits as each trade deadline approaches, they failed to take advantage of a perfect time to get his bat into the lineup.  Of course, to their credit, the Rangers did find 90 games for their other brilliant prospect, Jurickson Profar, but that was mainly due to injuries to Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mitch Moreland as well as the defensive versatility that Profar brings to the club.

Despite winning their 95 wins, the Rangers have to be disappointed in their 2016 campaign and they’ll need to make a big splash in free agency this offseason if they don’t want to continue that trend in 2017.