From Heroes to Zeroes in 3 Steps

Over the past 50 years, the MLB postseason format has changed drastically and finishing the season with the best record no longer guarantees that a team will advance to the World Series.  The 2016 Texas Rangers understand this all too well as they saw their dreams dashed in consecutive games in the American League Division Series by, this year’s AL Wild Card winners, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Despite their American League leading win/loss record (95-67), the Rangers were riddled with flaws that were easily exposed by the stiff postseason competition.  

So why exactly did the Rangers fail to live up to their hype in the 2016 postseason?  Here are the three reasons the Rangers are at home in Arlington - and not to host an ALCS game.

Bad Pitching

The regular season numbers don’t paint a picture of just how underwhelming the Rangers pitching was this season, considering they led the American League in Wins and Saves.  However, they were also among the worst in the league in ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.369) as a team and their relief pitchers combined for 17 blown saves.  Certainly, the Rangers have to be pleased with the production from Cole Hamels in his first full season with the team (15-5, with a 3.32 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning), and Yu Darvish - even with his short DL stint - coming back from Tommy John surgery looked to be the same dominant strikeout pitcher.  Still, the Rangers’ weakness was evident in their ALDS matchup as their pitching staff gave up an average of 7 runs a game to the Toronto Blue Jays and failed to close out Game 3 losing in extra innings.

Trade Deadline Mishaps

Pitching was, as it always is, a hot commodity at the trade deadline and the names that ended up in Texas were not among the coveted options on the market.  To be fair, there weren’t a lot of aces up for grabs, but the Rangers could have found help.  Matt Moore was traded to the Giants and threw a no-hitter, as well as a solid playoff game for them; Ivan Nova threw 3 complete games for the Pirates and went 5-2 in eleven starts after being acquired from the Yankees; and Rich Hill just pitched six innings of two hit ball to lead the Dodgers to a 2-1 lead in the NLCS over the Cubs in Game 3.  The Rangers did improve their offense at the trade deadline acquiring Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, but the offense wasn’t necessarily the problem as the team ranked 6th in both Runs and RBIs over the first half of the season - and both Lucroy and Beltran are free agents this offseason meaning their half year rental was for naught.

Poor Management

Prince Fielder started 89 games for the Rangers in 2016, and, as good as Prince has been, that was 89 too many games.  Prince was clearly not himself all season long - slugging a measly .334 with just 8 home runs - and was eventually forced to retire for medical reasons, and yet the Rangers kept going back to him time and time again.  It’s hard to bench a guy that was an All-Star and an MVP candidate just one year ago, but the Rangers were clearly headed to the postseason and they had an heir apparent waiting in the minor league wings in Joey Gallo.  However, the Texas Rangers are stubborn and while they continue to tell teams that Joey Gallo is off limits as each trade deadline approaches, they failed to take advantage of a perfect time to get his bat into the lineup.  Of course, to their credit, the Rangers did find 90 games for their other brilliant prospect, Jurickson Profar, but that was mainly due to injuries to Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mitch Moreland as well as the defensive versatility that Profar brings to the club.

Despite winning their 95 wins, the Rangers have to be disappointed in their 2016 campaign and they’ll need to make a big splash in free agency this offseason if they don’t want to continue that trend in 2017.

The Toughest Guy in MLB?

So ... I was doing my daily MLB check-in, browsing all of my favorite websites (see links on the right panel of the blog), and I came across an amazing page! MLB.com has a sub page dedicated to tracking milestones in baseball from the seemingly small (Tyler Flower’s upcoming 500th game) to those destined for the hall of fame (Albert Pujols’ soon to pass Frank Robinson for 25th on the all-time RBI list).

MLB.com — Milestone Tracker

As you can probably imagine, if you’ve been keeping up with the blog, this information sent me down a rabbit hole reminiscing past milestones and freeing up my schedule so I can watch live as some history is made this season.  

Anyway, as I was perusing, I expected to see the names David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, but dominating the page was a player that I believe is often forgotten. Adrian Beltre is 37 years old and finishing up his nineteenth season in MLB, and I feel like he’s rarely grabbing the headlines despite an incredible career. To be fair, as I began to write this blog post I came across a piece that Sports Illustrated did on Adrian Beltre in March of this year (SI Profile — Adrian Beltre), so I guess I’m not the only one who is making this realization. In any case, Adrian Beltre deserves far more praise than he’s received in his nineteen years in MLB.

The milestones, in case you were getting curious, that Beltre is approaching are the following: 1,600 RBIs, 500 HRs, and 3,000 Hits. Currently, there are only four players in MLB history that have accomplished that feat: Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Rafael Palmeiro. Let me say that again, only FOUR people have managed to accumulate these stats since the RBI became an official stat in 1920. Now, I am getting a little ahead of myself because Beltre is certainly going to have to do some work to reach these stats (he currently has 2,915 Hits, 439 HRs, and 1,559 RBIs).

**Disclaimer: There will be plenty of videos in this blog post and I suggest you try to watch them all**

We asked 100 people to name …”People who are Durable”

Averaging 142 games/season in his nineteen year career, Beltre has garnered the praise of teammates and coaches for being one of the toughest guys in baseball.

Beltre came back from this injury suffered in Game 1 of the 2015 ALDS to bat .444 in the final three games of the series.  

In June of last year, Texas recalled Beltre from the DL following just one batting practice session and without a rehab stint sparking Jon Daniels, the GM of Texas at the time, to call him a “freak”. Beltre IS a freak and his desire to be out on the field and help his team win games is at the very heart of what makes baseball great (along with wearing high baseball socks or stirrups).

The Answer is …

Adrian Beltre. The answer is Adrian Beltre. Seriously, if you are ever in a pinch to answer a baseball related trivia question just guess Adrian Beltre and you’ll probably be right. For instance, you’d be right if you answered Adrian Beltre to any of the following five questions:

1. Name one of the five AL 3B to have seven 20-homer seasons. (Graig Nettles, Adrian Beltre, A-Rod, Eric Chavez & Gary Gaetti)

2. Which player from the Dominican Republic has played in the most career games? (Adrian Beltre)

3. Name the two active players with 400+ HRs and 100+ SBs. (Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols)

4. Name the two active players with 300+ HRs and 4+ Gold Gloves. (Adrian Beltre, Mark Teixeira)

5. Name the four players who have hit for the cycle a record 4 times. (Bob Meusel, Babe Herman, John Reilly)

He’s ALIIIIVEEEEE!

Beltre is a statistical monster! I won’t reiterate the obvious stats above, but on top of those unfathomable benchmarks Adrian Beltre has won countless awards and be on the precipice of a few more. He’s finished in the top 15 of the MVP voting seven times, including each of the last six season; he’s won four Silver Slugger awards; he’s won four Gold Glove awards; and he’s been selected to the All-Star Game four times. The only thing that has continued to elude him for the past two decades seems to be a World Series title. Could this be the year? Texas is finally going all in this year and has surrounded Beltre with the supporting cast to possibly pull it off. On top of that, Beltre is certainly pulling his weight (Elias Sports Bureau tweeted on Wednesday, “Adrian Beltre has scored in 12 straight games — longest streak by a player 37 or older since 1944.” - the streak ended Wednesday although he has reached base in both the past two games).

And the Academy Award goes to …

Speaking of awards, Beltre is one of the funniest guys in baseball, and his constant commentary on the game should be awarded an Oscar. Here are some examples of his hysterical antics:

Beltre uses a broom to avoid a Gatorade shower and then helps the grounds crew.

Beltre, facing Pat Venditte (an ambidextrous pitcher), tries to decide which side of the plate to hit from.

Beltre’s best moments — this one is priceless!

Possibly my favorite story of Beltre’s sense of humor dates back to last year in April when Beltre broke three bats in a game against pitcher Garrett Richards — the next day, Beltre sent a $300 invoice to Richards to cover the replacements.  

Back to the milestones, it's clear Beltre will easily reach 1,600 RBIs and 3,000 Hits, but 500 HRs will be a lot tougher. Although, with two years left on his contract in Texas and at least another year after that somewhere as a DH, I think he will do whatever it takes to reach that club. I’m certainly rooting for him!

Don't Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch ...

Baltimore Orioles

Current Record: 72-61 (3rd in AL East)

Projected Record: 87-75 (3rd in AL East) *

RPI — .518 (5th in MLB)**

The Orioles have 29 games left (as I write this) and all but 6 of them are against AL East opponents. While that certainly creates a lot of opportunities for the Orioles to gain ground in the AL East, it also means it could be difficult for them to hold onto the second Wild Card spot. On top of that, three of their other six games are against the Tigers (the team they are currently tied with for that same second Wild Card spot in the AL) making basically every game a must win going forward for them. Last week, the O’s came one game short of sweeping the Nationals in a split series, but since that series they have lost 4 of 6 games and were outscored 40-23 (they are also 6-9 in their last 15 games including the Nationals series).

Smoldering or Extinguished?

Unfortunately, I’m going to have to say the flame is EXTINGUISHED for the Orioles. The Orioles are capable of huge numbers on offense and they are still leading MLB with 209 HRs on the season. While the Orioles continue to rake, hitting the most HRs over the last 30 days, it’s not translating into runs as they are 15th in MLB during that span. I guess what I’m trying to say is that the O’s have lacked consistency down the stretch. Some of that certainly has to do with injuries to Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, two of their most consistent performers over the past two years. Adam Jones has remained on the bench over the last week due to a hamstring strain and although it doesn’t seem to be serious enough to land him on the DL, hamstring injuries are extremely unpredictable and the O's will need Jones healthy down the stretch. Even more significant, perhaps, is the shoulder injury that has landed Chris Tillman on the DL. Tillman has been the only consistent spot in the rotation all year and right now they don’t expect him back until mid-September. Even if he is able to make it back for the postseason, assuming they make it there, I’m not sure they can be confident that he’ll be able to replicate his regular season numbers post-injury.  

Is there a chance for a spark?

Wait ... are the Orioles managed by Buck Showalter? Yes? Then YES, there is a chance for a spark! I don’t see it, but I know Buck does and I try not to doubt him. Let’s get a little more in depth than that, though. I already mentioned that the O’s lead the league in HRs and that’s because they have three players with more than 30 HRs (Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis) and those guys are not slowing down at all. In fact, those same three guys each hit 10 HRs in the month of August (Only the 4th time this has happened in MLB history — 47' Giants, 96' Rockies, 15' Blue Jays ***). Hyun Soo Kim is turning it on as well. His splits against lefties are horrible, but his OBP is almost .400 and the Orioles just claimed Drew Stubbs off waivers who, along with Nolan Reimold, could create a decent platoon in left field with Kim. There’s not too much to worry about in the O’s bullpen with Zach Britton having a spectacular season and the possible return of Darren O'Day in September, but they need to get some consistency out of the starting pitching. In fact, only two starting pitchers for the Orioles had more than 1 win in the month of August (Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman) and as a team the Orioles had an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.50 (both of those stats rank 4th worst in the MLB in that span). Hopefully, Bundy and Gausman can continue to miss bats and the rest of the bunch, made up mostly of veterans, can reign it in September.

When will it rekindle?

Even though the Orioles are within striking distance in the AL East, I don’t think they can overcome their inconsistencies to make a run in September. I think they have a tremendous amount of talent on the roster though. Any franchise would love to build a team around guys like Jones and Machado. They’re also getting some unexpected production out of their year rental, Trumbo, and Tillman was shutting down opposing offenses until he hit the DL. On top of that, Buck Showalter won Manager of the Year only two years ago and has built an amazing culture in Baltimore. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a bad word spoken about Buck Showalter and he is a consummate professional and a master of the game. Unfortunately, Buck didn’t get the help he needed at the Trade Deadline and the few moves they made ahead of the September roster expansion (picking up Michael Bourn, Stubbs, Kyle Lobstein) won’t do much but add weight to the bench. Going into 2017, the Orioles will more than likely lose Steve Pearce, Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, and Matt Wieters to free agency. While I’m sure they would rather not lose their starting catcher and the MLB HR leader, they won’t want to pay to keep these guys and the FA class this offseason is pretty decent: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Wilson Ramos, Justin Turner, Ian Desmond, etc. If they can attract a few of those guys to go along with Machado, Jones, and Britton then they could set themselves up for another decent season next year. Beyond 2017, it’s hard to predict because there are very few guys that are ready to make a mark on the Major Leagues. Although, Chance Sisco (just promoted to AAA — Norfolk) went 2 for 5 with 5 RBIs in his debut and could be the replacement for Wieters within the next couple of seasons if they lose him to free agency.

Fantasy Embers

It’s not too hard to figure out who to sit/start when it comes to the Orioles. You’re clearly starting Machado, Trumbo, Britton the rest of the season, and you’re also not going to sit Davis, but beware of his ability to find a cold streak without a moment's notice. Jones is hitting .300 right now, but with his hamstring strain it’s impossible to predict whether or not he’ll be healthy enough to give you any production. I don’t know if I could get behind using any of the Baltimore starters, especially with the schedule they have going forward, but Britton seems like a safe bet to close out a handful more games rest of season, at the very least. If you’re in a keepers league/dynasty league and you have Machado, then you have to be excited about your chances for the next 5 years. Beyond that, you’re probably keeping Jones and Davis and the young, soon-to-be ace, Bundy (for the upside), but I would wait on Trumbo and Wieters to see where they end up after free agency.

* - projected standing are courtesy of FanGraphs

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

*** - (according to Elias Sports Bureau via ESPN.com) Orioles are the fourth team to have three players hit 10 HR in the same month. The other teams to do it: NY Giants (July 1947 — Marshall, Mize, Thomson), Rockies (August 1996 — Castilla, Burks, Galarraga), Blue Jays (August 2015 — Bautista, Encarnación, Donaldson)

So …. Gary Sanchez is pretty good.

Quickly read the title of this blog again, but with the stoic affectation of Joe Girardi behind them and it almost doesn’t sound ridiculous.  Gary Sanchez is not “pretty good”, we are watching the first moments of an All-Star (quite possibly a HOF) career.  We are hanging on his every at bat the way we did when Bryce Harper and Mike Trout were dazzling us their rookie season.  Mark Teixeira, who has been forced to follow him in the batting order recently, was disrespected by Seattle as he saw Sanchez intentionally walked twice in their game on August 24th in order to pitch to him.  Unfazed by the slap in the face, Teixeira said, in an interview after the game, * "Shoot, if Babe Ruth is hitting behind him, you intentionally walk him.  I mean, he is as hot as any player I have played with in my entire career. You just don't see guys doing what he is doing. I don't care how old he is."  Teixeira couldn’t be more right!  It’s so tough to find a comparison for what Sanchez is doing with the bat, not to mention with his glove and arm - here’s the closest I found.  Check out these two videos:

The first is Sanchez hitting his first career HR at Fenway Park and the second is Frank Thomas “The Big Hurt” hitting his first career HR.

There is a reason why Thomas was called “The Big Hurt”, the power was unquestionable and the bat speed was blistering.  While we marvel at his power stats, it’s easy to forget that Frank Thomas also hit for a .301 AVG in his HOF career and had one of the best eyes in baseball.  Thomas sprayed the ball to all parts of the field and ended his career with the 10th most BBs in MLB history (according to Baseball-Reference).  The Yankees have a guy in Gary Sanchez that looks like he can put a “Big Hurt” on the other 29 teams in MLB, while also serving as a solid backstop behind the plate for many years to come!

* referencing an excerpt of an article by Andrew Marchand published on ESPN.com on 8/25/16

The "Baby Bombers"?

New York Yankees

Current Record: 65-61 (3rd in AL East)

Projected Record (according to FanGraphs): 83-79 (3rd in AL East)

*RPI (Relative Power Index from ESPN.com): 0.506 (12th in MLB)

The Yankees have 36 games left this season (as I write this) and have spent most of the season until this point hovering around .500. Their inconsistencies have been glaring and their age has finally caught up to them in 2016. However, with a month of the season left, the Yankees seem to have found a way to flip the script turning their Bronx Bombers into the Baby Bombers.

The Yankees have battled injuries all season long, nowhere more evident than the revolving door at 1B. Teixeira has made a few DL stints this season, but even when he has been manning “the other hot corner”, he has been incredibly ineffective posting a .197 AVG with 89 Ks and 10 HRs in 90 games. To put that into perspective, Gary Sanchez has 9 HRs in his first 19 games. At the end of May and into June, Teixeira, Dustin Ackley, Chris Parmelee, Rob Refsnyder each made a start at 1B landing on the DL one after another and ending the seasons of Ackley and Parmelee. The Yanks even tossed around the idea of starting ARod or bringing up Swisher from AAA, before giving Ike Davis a shot (that lasted all of 8 games). Beyond that glaring situation, the starting pitching (besides Tanaka and a few surprising starts from Sabathia) hasn’t been good, and they traded away two of the best closers in baseball at the deadline. So what’s in store for the team from the Bronx?

Smoldering or Extinguished?

SMOLDERING! The Yanks are poised for a new dynasty and the Youth Movement, masterfully constructed by Brian Cashman and led by Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, is quickly drawing comparisons to the Core 4 (Pettitte, Posada, Jeter, Rivera) that brought the Yankees remarkable success in the late 90s. Even after a trade deadline that saw the Yanks become “sellers” for the first time ever, they’re scoring runs at a much higher clip already with more HRs in August than any one month this season so far. Their faith in Betances is also paying off as he has rewarded their trust with 6 saves in August.

Is there a chance for a spark?

Even though the Yankees are on a huge upswing and the excitement is palpable, they still can’t seem to get on a roll. They’ve won or tied 6 of their last 7 series, but are still barely above .500 and still 5 games back in the Wild Card race. Baltimore and Toronto sit on top of the Wild Card standings with Boston at the top of the AL East and, with 23 of their 36 games against those three teams, there is a lot of potential for shifts in the standings over the past few weeks of the season. It’s becoming extremely likely that three AL East teams will make the playoffs this season (two of them competing in the play-in game), but I see the Yanks falling just short of the postseason this year.

When will it rekindle?

I think we are watching the Yankees rekindle right now, and I love that they aren’t waiting until Spring Training next season to see what they have in their young talent. Sanchez, who has set a Yankees record for most HRs in his first 19 games, has caught 5 base runners stealing in just 105 innings and is being praised by the starting rotation; Aaron Judge and Tyler Austen hit back-to-back HRs in their first MLB at bats, becoming the first duo to accomplish that feat in the history of baseball; Chad Green threw 6 innings of 2 hit ball on August 15th and racked up 11 K’s (he has an incredible 10.3 K/9 and a 12 percent Swinging Strike percentage — according to FanGraphs). Although I’m hopeful (as a Yankees fan), I don’t see the Yankees overcoming their AL East foes and making it to October, but the lineup is really shaping up and if Green, Luis Severino, and Luis Cessa can pull it together to join Pineda (whose peripherals have been serviceable this season despite his lousy record) and Tanaka (who has been lights out, especially on extra rest) then this Yankees team is a World Series contender next season and beyond.  

Fantasy Embers

Rest of season I think it’s going to be tough to figure out which Yankees to sit/start because Girardi is trying to infuse that lineup with youth and that will only increase when the rosters expand in September. You definitely have to start Sanchez, Tanaka, Betances — they are sure things and should be 100 percent owned and 100 percent started. Gregorius and Castro have been solid, especially lately, and Judge will put up some big numbers as well, and if the Yankees stay in the Wild Card race then you can assume they will all be in the lineup every day. If you’re in a dynasty/keeper league then I think you need to consider investing heavily in the Yankees — there should be spots on your team for Sanchez, Judge, Tanaka, Pineda, and potentially for Gregorius, Castro, Bird, Green, Severino, Cessa as fliers for next season. Lastly, Mason Williams, who might get a chance to make an appearance in September, could play a role in 2017 and will definitely be their everyday CF in 2018 and beyond — he is worth a look as a stash if you have a NA slot for Rookies.

* - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

Throwing out the first pitch!

ARod is no longer a Yankee and has informed us, through his publicist, that he is not going to play again in 2016 (Brett Favre anyone?). Hence, the Baseball world needs a new Mr. September! Why?  Well, I think we can all agree there will never be another Mr. October (Reggie) or Mr. November (DJ).  There’s also no denying the suspense and excitement of the MLB Playoffs.  However, with the prolonged postseason and a meaningless All Star Game each year, the MOST exciting time of the year for Baseball is the last few weeks of the season (the last few weeks of September).  If you don’t believe me, let me remind you of a few of the exciting revelations of, my birth month, September: division battles, extended 40 man rosters, late season rallies/failures, unsung heroes/zeroes.

That's why I'm here to act as your Mr. September, your guide, as the season comes to a close.  Who's going to finish strong?  What manager is going to blow it?  What player is going to step out of the shadows? I have all the answers, the embers if you will (or at least I'll pretend to for the next 4 weeks).  Which embers will burn bright and ignite a new fire to blaze through the postseason and beyond?  Which embers will sizzle and fade away leaving a blemish of failure?  Follow me and you might just find out!  

PLAY BALL!!