What makes the MLB Playoffs great? The answer ... EVERYTHING!

As October continues to fade away, the MLB playoffs are well underway and I believe the only people disappointed are the fans of the teams quickly losing ground to Cleveland and Chicago (I never thought I’d say that). The MLB playoffs, in my opinion, are the closest thing to perfection when it comes to postseason sports (and yes I’m including our beloved March Madness in that statement). The MLB postseason, in it’s current form, is comprehensive, fair, and exhilarating. Baseball is our National Pastime, and even though we constantly hearken to the good oil’ days of Aaron, Ruth, and Mantle, Baseball is constantly changing and improving (for good or bad) the way the game is played and how it appeals to the ever-changing audience.  

The Good (at a glance)

With the new Wild Card play-in game, Baseball capitalizes on the excitement of the single elimination style that has created the craze of March Madness.

Edwin Encarnacion’s 11th Inning Walk-Off Home Run

Alright, let’s start at the beginning ...

Why fix something that’s not broken?  

Baseball is, and always has been, America’s National Pastime, a sport that is enriched with tradition that dates back to the 1870s. However, the social landscape of the world has changed exponentially in the past decade and in 2016 it is more important than ever to appeal to the short attention span that has meticulously developed with the success of Instagram, Twitter, and Facebook. MLB teams play 162 games each year, and before 1969 the teams with the best records in each league (American and National) played each other in a best of seven World Series to crown a champion. If we were still using that system in 2016, then that would leave 28 teams [read: 28 fan bases] out of postseason consideration immediately following an arduous 162 game season. In fact, more than half those teams would have fallen out of reach mathematically well before the end of the season effectively losing the interest of half the country as the postseason approached. Baseball has strived to constantly evolve it’s postseason moving from one round to two rounds to three rounds and finally adding the play-in game in 2012, and there’s only one problem (that I can think of) that all of the “fixing” didn’t fix. The problem with adding teams into the postseason conversation is that you are not always left with the best team in each league as the dust settles. Before 1969, each and every year the two best teams played each other. There was absolutely no circumstance when a team with a losing record would be able to win the World Series. In 2016, while it still has yet to happen, the opportunity is certainly there. Eleven years ago in 2005, the San Diego Padres were able to win the NL West with an 82-80 record and could have been the first team to accomplish that unfortunate feat if they hadn’t won five of their last six games to close out the season. Year to year, it’s something that every major American sport deals with, within each league (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) some divisions are just not as strong as other divisions and it’s incredibly unpredictable. There are a lot of factors that aid both smaller and larger market teams to get stronger year to year (the draft, free agency, large wallets, etc.), and as is oft true in team sports any team can beat any other team on any given day. So again, I attest that MLB has nailed the postseason; giving multiple teams a shot to play their way in, cultivating competition up until the last game of their extensive season, and ultimately crowning a deserving champion each and every season. Let’s put it to the test, though.

MLB vs NFL

I admit this is a tough comparison especially given the commercial success of the Super Bowl each and every year, however I will challenge that the commercials and halftime show have literally been more of a success than the actual game being played. The point I’m trying to make is not which postseason makes the most money or attracts the most devoted viewership. As I stated previously, I want to know which postseason is most effective in finding an undisputed champion of the league in question and most successful in affording their fan base the opportunity to get swept up in the team's’ triumphs. The NFL fails to compare for a few different reasons; neutral field for the Super Bowl, unpredictability of single elimination games, lack of managerial responsibility. If you ask me, there is nothing more disappointing than having your (often hometown) team make the Super Bowl and realizing that on top of the ridiculous ticket prices you also have to buy a flight to California, Arizona, New Orleans, etc. In every other major sport, there are both home and away games for the playoff teams allowing hometown fans a greater opportunity to support their team in person. Football, in general, is a lot more physical than the other major sports which makes a best-of playoff series out of the question and some teams do get home playoff games, but overall it’s extremely inconvenient. On top of that, it could be one game and you’re out for your favorite team. It’s heartbreaking that each year a fan base can spend four months hoping and pining for a playoff game, and then have their dreams dashed in just sixty minutes on that first Saturday or Sunday. Lastly, with Bill Belichick the notable exception to this rule, there is very little managing done during the NFL postseason. I find myself constantly disappointed that a player didn’t run harder, or overthrew that pass, or fumbled the ball; but these are events that are part of the game of football and can befall even the best player. Even Bill Belichick and the undefeated Patriots were overwhelmed in 2012 when they were beaten by a far inferior New York Giants team. In Baseball, matchups and managerial decisions are countless and can directly lead to a win or lose. Just ask Buck Showalter (considered one of the best managers in the game), who is under heat for his use of his bullpen in the Baltimore Orioles loss this year to the Toronto Blue Jays; or just look at how Terry Francona is using his midseason addition, Andrew Miller, this postseason for the Indians. The Super Bowl is thrilling, but it so often seems like dumb luck.  

Recent examples below:

Malcolm Butler’s Interception in the End zone — 2015 Super Bowl

David Tyree’s Helmet Catch — Super Bowl XLII

Nothing lucky about this ... Rivera closes down four separate World Series because that’s what he does.

1996 — World Series Game 6

1998 — World Series Game 4

2000 — World Series Game 5

2009 — World Series Game 6

MLB vs NHL and NBA

I’m lumping the NHL and NBA together because their postseasons are extremely similar, and they both almost got it right. Almost. In my opinion, there are only two that need improvement: be less inclusive and the home court/ice advantage. Competition is paramount in sports and even the most tortured fan bases would agree that they don’t want pity. Sixteen teams are included in both the NBA and NHL playoffs, which means more than half the league makes the postseason. I remember playing in sports tournaments growing up and all of the trophies that were given out, and I never remember anyone enjoying their “participation” trophy. I know that fan bases want to see their team make the postseason at any cost, but the fans of the 8th place team each year must be embarrassed that they even have a shot to win the championship. With a postseason that is this inclusive, how is competition fostered at the end of the regular season? Toward the end of the regular season teams that are well ahead of the curve are only vying for the ability to host crucial playoff games at home, and, although it’s hard to deny the home court/ice advantage, it must be difficult to the risk of injury to your most vital players for a couple of relatively meaningless games. Speaking of home court/ice advantage, I don’t understand its usage in the NBA/NHL. First of all, there is far too much travel and delay when a series goes to seven games because the last three games of those series alternate between the home and away teams. Also, I don’t see the clear advantage of this plan considering the lesser team can still host one of the final two games if they are able to push the series that far. I believe the point of the home field advantage is twofold: to give the home team the advantage if the series is extended to seven games, and to validate the upset if the away team is able to close out a series on the road. Both of these points are moot if you use a 2-2-1-1-1 series.

Yeah, but why the play-in game?!

I don’t really know why this is an argument, but I have heard the whining that the play-in game favors the team with the single best pitcher (not necessarily the best team). First of all, one of the most often used idioms in sports is “Defense wins championships”, one that has been proven time and again. Needless to say, if a team has the best pitcher don’t they deserve to win? The importance of having an ace at the top of the rotation is something that every team covets throughout the offseason, the regular season, at the trade deadline, and finally appreciates as the postseason approaches. However, using the logic above, wouldn’t all of the Wild Card play-in teams meet their demise shortly thereafter? I could go through each of the twenty teams that have had the distinction to play in those games and pick them apart, but the case was made for me in the 2014 MLB playoffs. In 2014, one of the most exciting World Series in recent memory, the San Francisco Giants were able to beat the Kansas City Royals in seven games after each of those teams survived their respective Wild Card play-in games to begin the postseason. In fact, the two teams only suffered two collective losses leading up to their World Series matchup proving that the best teams have both star power and depth. Even this year, only two of the top four teams heading into the playoffs are still alive and the clear World Series favorite, the Chicago Cubs, are tied heading into game 3 of the NLCS. I implore you to watch the rest of the postseason unfold, even if you are a Yankees/Red Sox/Orioles/Giants fan. Each and every year, I find that I am anything but disappointed with the final result, and if the Cubs can pull through then you’ll be witnessing history!

Don't Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch ...

Baltimore Orioles

Current Record: 72-61 (3rd in AL East)

Projected Record: 87-75 (3rd in AL East) *

RPI — .518 (5th in MLB)**

The Orioles have 29 games left (as I write this) and all but 6 of them are against AL East opponents. While that certainly creates a lot of opportunities for the Orioles to gain ground in the AL East, it also means it could be difficult for them to hold onto the second Wild Card spot. On top of that, three of their other six games are against the Tigers (the team they are currently tied with for that same second Wild Card spot in the AL) making basically every game a must win going forward for them. Last week, the O’s came one game short of sweeping the Nationals in a split series, but since that series they have lost 4 of 6 games and were outscored 40-23 (they are also 6-9 in their last 15 games including the Nationals series).

Smoldering or Extinguished?

Unfortunately, I’m going to have to say the flame is EXTINGUISHED for the Orioles. The Orioles are capable of huge numbers on offense and they are still leading MLB with 209 HRs on the season. While the Orioles continue to rake, hitting the most HRs over the last 30 days, it’s not translating into runs as they are 15th in MLB during that span. I guess what I’m trying to say is that the O’s have lacked consistency down the stretch. Some of that certainly has to do with injuries to Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, two of their most consistent performers over the past two years. Adam Jones has remained on the bench over the last week due to a hamstring strain and although it doesn’t seem to be serious enough to land him on the DL, hamstring injuries are extremely unpredictable and the O's will need Jones healthy down the stretch. Even more significant, perhaps, is the shoulder injury that has landed Chris Tillman on the DL. Tillman has been the only consistent spot in the rotation all year and right now they don’t expect him back until mid-September. Even if he is able to make it back for the postseason, assuming they make it there, I’m not sure they can be confident that he’ll be able to replicate his regular season numbers post-injury.  

Is there a chance for a spark?

Wait ... are the Orioles managed by Buck Showalter? Yes? Then YES, there is a chance for a spark! I don’t see it, but I know Buck does and I try not to doubt him. Let’s get a little more in depth than that, though. I already mentioned that the O’s lead the league in HRs and that’s because they have three players with more than 30 HRs (Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis) and those guys are not slowing down at all. In fact, those same three guys each hit 10 HRs in the month of August (Only the 4th time this has happened in MLB history — 47' Giants, 96' Rockies, 15' Blue Jays ***). Hyun Soo Kim is turning it on as well. His splits against lefties are horrible, but his OBP is almost .400 and the Orioles just claimed Drew Stubbs off waivers who, along with Nolan Reimold, could create a decent platoon in left field with Kim. There’s not too much to worry about in the O’s bullpen with Zach Britton having a spectacular season and the possible return of Darren O'Day in September, but they need to get some consistency out of the starting pitching. In fact, only two starting pitchers for the Orioles had more than 1 win in the month of August (Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman) and as a team the Orioles had an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.50 (both of those stats rank 4th worst in the MLB in that span). Hopefully, Bundy and Gausman can continue to miss bats and the rest of the bunch, made up mostly of veterans, can reign it in September.

When will it rekindle?

Even though the Orioles are within striking distance in the AL East, I don’t think they can overcome their inconsistencies to make a run in September. I think they have a tremendous amount of talent on the roster though. Any franchise would love to build a team around guys like Jones and Machado. They’re also getting some unexpected production out of their year rental, Trumbo, and Tillman was shutting down opposing offenses until he hit the DL. On top of that, Buck Showalter won Manager of the Year only two years ago and has built an amazing culture in Baltimore. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a bad word spoken about Buck Showalter and he is a consummate professional and a master of the game. Unfortunately, Buck didn’t get the help he needed at the Trade Deadline and the few moves they made ahead of the September roster expansion (picking up Michael Bourn, Stubbs, Kyle Lobstein) won’t do much but add weight to the bench. Going into 2017, the Orioles will more than likely lose Steve Pearce, Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, and Matt Wieters to free agency. While I’m sure they would rather not lose their starting catcher and the MLB HR leader, they won’t want to pay to keep these guys and the FA class this offseason is pretty decent: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Wilson Ramos, Justin Turner, Ian Desmond, etc. If they can attract a few of those guys to go along with Machado, Jones, and Britton then they could set themselves up for another decent season next year. Beyond 2017, it’s hard to predict because there are very few guys that are ready to make a mark on the Major Leagues. Although, Chance Sisco (just promoted to AAA — Norfolk) went 2 for 5 with 5 RBIs in his debut and could be the replacement for Wieters within the next couple of seasons if they lose him to free agency.

Fantasy Embers

It’s not too hard to figure out who to sit/start when it comes to the Orioles. You’re clearly starting Machado, Trumbo, Britton the rest of the season, and you’re also not going to sit Davis, but beware of his ability to find a cold streak without a moment's notice. Jones is hitting .300 right now, but with his hamstring strain it’s impossible to predict whether or not he’ll be healthy enough to give you any production. I don’t know if I could get behind using any of the Baltimore starters, especially with the schedule they have going forward, but Britton seems like a safe bet to close out a handful more games rest of season, at the very least. If you’re in a keepers league/dynasty league and you have Machado, then you have to be excited about your chances for the next 5 years. Beyond that, you’re probably keeping Jones and Davis and the young, soon-to-be ace, Bundy (for the upside), but I would wait on Trumbo and Wieters to see where they end up after free agency.

* - projected standing are courtesy of FanGraphs

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

*** - (according to Elias Sports Bureau via ESPN.com) Orioles are the fourth team to have three players hit 10 HR in the same month. The other teams to do it: NY Giants (July 1947 — Marshall, Mize, Thomson), Rockies (August 1996 — Castilla, Burks, Galarraga), Blue Jays (August 2015 — Bautista, Encarnación, Donaldson)