Showing posts with label hits. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hits. Show all posts

Monday, September 12, 2016

Challenge Accepted!

Last week, one of the most die-hard baseball fans I’ve ever known, told me that he believed he had witnessed something for the first time in his 45 years of baseball fanaticism. The oddity in question occurred during the Yankees sweep of the Blue Jays (Sept 5th — 7th), in which three different Yankees pitchers recorded saves in the three game series. This feat was overshadowed by the drama of the series, and I couldn’t wait to research this phenomenon. So ... has this ever happened before?  

Challenge Accepted!

As I began my research I realized the scope of this topic is practically infinite. The save, as a stat, was first adopted for the 1969 season, however baseball researchers have since worked through the official statistics retroactively and have calculated saves for all major league seasons before 1969 as well. Needless to say, I became immediately overwhelmed by my task at hand. Luckily for me, Elias Sports Bureau (Elias Says ...) noticed the feat as well and decided to include a mention in their daily update on ESPN.com. Here it is:

“ Betances, Parker and Clippard record saves in sweep
The Yankees swept three games from the Blue Jays with Dellin Betances, Blake Parker and Tyler Clippard ending each with a save. The Yankees swept a series of at least three games with a different pitcher earning a save in each victory only once before. In April 1989, they won all three games of a matchup against the White Sox in the Bronx, with Dave Righetti, Dale Mohorcic, and Lance McCullers recording saves in that series. “
So ... not only has this happened before but it’s happened in the last thirty years twice for the New York Yankees. Seems like a pretty crazy coincidence, especially since it takes a unique combination of scenarios for a team to even have the opportunity to accomplish this anomaly. Although the question was answered, my curiosity was not quenched and so the comparison begins.
Similarities/Differences
First of all, as we start to compare the two series in question, the glaring difference between the two sweeps are the months in which they took place. The sweep of the White Sox began on April 28th just twenty-one games into the 1989 season and, although both teams were a few games under .500, there were not any immediate pennant/playoff implications on the line. Conversely, the 2016 Yankees were entering the September series with the Blue Jays within 5 games of an AL Wild Card spot and just a couple more games out of first place (worth mentioning that the Blue Jays were the team currently holding onto first place).  

The next similarity lies in the fact that the Yankees, both the 1989 and 2016 team, had an undisputed Closer — 1989/Dave Righetti; 2016/Dellin Betances. The importance of that statement should not be underestimated considering it’s not uncommon for a team’s Closer to get multiple saves in a row. In fact, Righetti had already gotten saves on Monday (April 24th, 1989) and Thursday (April 27th, 1989) of that week going into Friday’s game, and Betances had closed out games on Wednesday (August 31st, 2016) and Sunday (September 4th, 2016) going into the Monday night game. Needless to say, both teams knew exactly who was going to get the ball in the ninth as long as they were available (i.e. rested and ready to go).

Game 1, 1989: Dave Righetti, S; 0.2 IP, 1 H, 0 K, 0 BB, 2 BF, 3 Pit, 5.12 aLI
Game 1, 2016: Dellin Betances, S; 1 IP, 0 H, 2 K, 0 BB, 3 BF, 10 Pit, 1.0 aLI
                                               * glossary of specific terms used at end of blog post

Looking at the first game of each series, the similarities continue as the Closers for each team ended up with the Save.  
Betances had a “typical” save, or at least what you’d like a save to look like, quickly disposing of 3 consecutive batters in the ninth. According to Baseball-Reference, the aLI (or Average Leverage Index) that Betances was facing was 1.0 (or average) meaning it wasn’t an extremely intense situation he was working through. However, he did let the number 9 hitter, Dioner Navarro, work a full count before striking him out and then he faced the top of the Blue Jays order. Betances did his job efficiently and the Yankees left with their 2nd straight win and Betances’ second straight save.


Dave Righetti wasn’t quite in the same situation as Betances, he came in with the score 3-1 (same spread as Betances) with one out and runners on first and second and proceeded to load the bases when a pinch hitter, Fred Manrique, hit a slow infield single; the aLI was up to a decently high 5.12 (additional into and context to come later on this) and Righetti was about to face the leadoff hitter, Ozzie Guillen. With the bases loaded and one out, Righetti was spared a loss when Guillen’s line drive was caught by the second baseman, Steve Sax, who was able to double up Eddie Williams at second base for outs two and three. Dave Righetti was effective, but, as is often said about baseball, the box score doesn’t tell the whole story. Either way, the Yankees of 1989 were also able to close out the first game of their series and secure the second straight win (and second straight save for Dave Righetti).

Game 2, 1989: Dale Mohorcic, S; 3.1 IP, 2 H, 3 K, 0 BB, 12 BF, 43 Pit, 0.36 aLI
Game 2, 2016: Blake Parker, S; 0.2 IP, 0 H, 1 K, O BB, 2 BF, 7 Pit, 8.29 aLI

Game 2 for each team highlights both aspects of the definition of a save in baseball, and I suppose it’s about time to address that definition.
A save is registered if the pitcher satisfies one of the following conditions: He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning. He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, at bat or on deck. He pitches for at least three innings.
Well, in 1989, the Yankees won game two of their series by six runs (8-2) so at first glance it doesn’t make sense that there would be a save situation in the game. However, when Dale Mohorcic entered the game, in the top of the sixth inning, the lead was only three runs (5-2) and there were runners on first and second with two outs satisfying the first condition of the save definition. Mohorcic quickly got Dave Gallagher (the cleanup hitter) to ground out for the third out of the sixth, and proceeded to pitch three more scoreless innings, while the Yankees offense added a three run cushion.
For the second condition of the save definition, we fast forward to 2016 where Joe Girardi asked Blake Parker (with only 8 IP as a Yankee) to come into a one run game with one out and the bases loaded and Kevin Pillar up to bat (3 for 3 in the game including a go-ahead 2 RBI double in the eighth). As if that wasn’t enough drama, Joe Girardi was standing on the mound waiting for Blake Parker to trot out after taking that same ball out of Dellin Betances' hand (the aforementioned Closer of the Yankees who had just given up two runs on two hits and three walks)  
Just to give you context, this is what it would have looked like if Dave Righetti had been removed from that game:


Here’s what it actually looked like (fast forward to 2:02):


If you watched the rest of the clip, you can certainly understand why the aLI when Parker entered the game was a dramatic 8.29 (8 times higher than an average situation) and he performed admirably getting Pillar to strikeout looking on 6 pitches and Justin Smoak to fly out to end the game.   Although, Blake Parker probably gives all the credit here to Brett Gardner for making an outstanding catch at the wall for the last out.


Game 3, 1989: Lance McCullers, S; 3.2 IP, 1 H, 5 K, 3 BB, 14 BF, 55 Pit, 1.16 aLI
Game 3, 2016: Tyler Clippard, S; 1 IP, 0 H, 2 K, 0 BB, 3 BF, 11 Pit, 1.0 aLI
In game 3 for the 2016 Yankees, Tyler Clippard delivered another one of those “typical” saves facing the minimum batters in the ninth inning and striking out both Jose Bautista and Dioner Navarro on 5 pitches each, and getting Troy Tulowitzki to fly out on the first pitch he saw to end the game drama free.  Speaking of “typical” saves, this would have clearly been a situation for Dellin Betances to come into the game, but considering he pitched in the previous three games, and threw over 40 pitches the previous night, he was not available allowing the historic coincidence to remain intact.


Lance McCullers, father of current Houston Astros pitcher of the same name, earned the third save for the 1989 Yankees with an excellent showing.  He entered the game in the top of the sixth inning and struck out the two batters he faced swinging to end the inning and leave runners on first and second.  He then went on to allow only one hit over the next three innings, while striking out three more and walking three batters.  In fact, Dallas Green had so much confidence in McCullers on the day that he left McCullers in the game in the ninth, which because of a pinch hitter in the eighth, meant the Yankees had to forfeit the DH for the rest of the game.  Don Mattingly moved from DH to 1B and if the White Sox had started a rally in the ninth and tied the game, the Yankees would have been forced to have the pitcher bat or use more of their bench players.
Three Up, Three Down!
With their sweep in 1989, the Yankees made it back to .500 on the season, however that would be one of the last times they managed that all season.  The 2016 Yankees are faring much better after their sweep, which subsequently dropped the Blue Jays out of first place in the AL East, holding on to their playoff hopes if only by hair.  Maybe one day I’ll be able to scour the box scores and calculate how many times this amazing team accomplishment has occurred.
*aLI, a stat created by Baseball-Reference — within a game, there are plays that are more pivotal than others. We attempt to quantify these plays with a stat called leverage index (LI). LI looks at the possible changes in win probability in a given situation; situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible (e.g. runner on second late in a tie game) have higher LIs than situations where there can be no large change in win probability (e.g. late innings of a 12-run blowout).
The stat is normalized so that on average the leverage is 1.00. In tense situations, the leverage is higher than 1.00 (up to about 10) and in low-tension situations, the leverage is between 0 and 1.0.

Other Stats = S — save, IP — Innings Pitched, H — Hits, K — Strikeouts, BB — Walks, BF — Batters Faced, Pit — Pitches Thrown

Friday, September 9, 2016

The Toughest Guy in MLB?

So ... I was doing my daily MLB check-in, browsing all of my favorite websites (see links on the right panel of the blog), and I came across an amazing page! MLB.com has a sub page dedicated to tracking milestones in baseball from the seemingly small (Tyler Flower’s upcoming 500th game) to those destined for the hall of fame (Albert Pujols’ soon to pass Frank Robinson for 25th on the all-time RBI list).

MLB.com — Milestone Tracker

As you can probably imagine, if you’ve been keeping up with the blog, this information sent me down a rabbit hole reminiscing past milestones and freeing up my schedule so I can watch live as some history is made this season.  


Anyway, as I was perusing, I expected to see the names David Ortiz, Carlos Beltran, Albert Pujols, but dominating the page was a player that I believe is often forgotten. Adrian Beltre is 37 years old and finishing up his nineteenth season in MLB, and I feel like he’s rarely grabbing the headlines despite an incredible career. To be fair, as I began to write this blog post I came across a piece that Sports Illustrated did on Adrian Beltre in March of this year (SI Profile — Adrian Beltre), so I guess I’m not the only one who is making this realization. In any case, Adrian Beltre deserves far more praise than he’s received in his nineteen years in MLB.


The milestones, in case you were getting curious, that Beltre is approaching are the following: 1,600 RBIs, 500 HRs, and 3,000 Hits. Currently, there are only four players in MLB history that have accomplished that feat: Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Eddie Murray, Rafael Palmeiro. Let me say that again, only FOUR people have managed to accumulate these stats since the RBI became an official stat in 1920. Now, I am getting a little ahead of myself because Beltre is certainly going to have to do some work to reach these stats (he currently has 2,915 Hits, 439 HRs, and 1,559 RBIs).




**Disclaimer: There will be plenty of videos in this blog post and I suggest you try to watch them all**


We asked 100 people to name …”People who are Durable”


Averaging 142 games/season in his nineteen year career, Beltre has garnered the praise of teammates and coaches for being one of the toughest guys in baseball.




Beltre came back from this injury suffered in Game 1 of the 2015 ALDS to bat .444 in the final three games of the series.  

In June of last year, Texas recalled Beltre from the DL following just one batting practice session and without a rehab stint sparking Jon Daniels, the GM of Texas at the time, to call him a “freak”. Beltre IS a freak and his desire to be out on the field and help his team win games is at the very heart of what makes baseball great (along with wearing high baseball socks or stirrups).


The Answer is …


Adrian Beltre. The answer is Adrian Beltre. Seriously, if you are ever in a pinch to answer a baseball related trivia question just guess Adrian Beltre and you’ll probably be right. For instance, you’d be right if you answered Adrian Beltre to any of the following five questions:


1. Name one of the five AL 3B to have seven 20-homer seasons. (Graig Nettles, Adrian Beltre, A-Rod, Eric Chavez & Gary Gaetti)


2. Which player from the Dominican Republic has played in the most career games? (Adrian Beltre)


3. Name the two active players with 400+ HRs and 100+ SBs. (Adrian Beltre, Albert Pujols)


4. Name the two active players with 300+ HRs and 4+ Gold Gloves. (Adrian Beltre, Mark Teixeira)


5. Name the four players who have hit for the cycle a record 4 times. (Bob Meusel, Babe Herman, John Reilly)



He’s ALIIIIVEEEEE!


Beltre is a statistical monster! I won’t reiterate the obvious stats above, but on top of those unfathomable benchmarks Adrian Beltre has won countless awards and be on the precipice of a few more. He’s finished in the top 15 of the MVP voting seven times, including each of the last six season; he’s won four Silver Slugger awards; he’s won four Gold Glove awards; and he’s been selected to the All-Star Game four times. The only thing that has continued to elude him for the past two decades seems to be a World Series title. Could this be the year? Texas is finally going all in this year and has surrounded Beltre with the supporting cast to possibly pull it off. On top of that, Beltre is certainly pulling his weight (Elias Sports Bureau tweeted on Wednesday, “Adrian Beltre has scored in 12 straight games — longest streak by a player 37 or older since 1944.” - the streak ended Wednesday although he has reached base in both the past two games).




And the Academy Award goes to …


Speaking of awards, Beltre is one of the funniest guys in baseball, and his constant commentary on the game should be awarded an Oscar. Here are some examples of his hysterical antics:


Beltre uses a broom to avoid a Gatorade shower and then helps the grounds crew.




Beltre, facing Pat Venditte (an ambidextrous pitcher), tries to decide which side of the plate to hit from.



Beltre’s best moments — this one is priceless!




Possibly my favorite story of Beltre’s sense of humor dates back to last year in April when Beltre broke three bats in a game against pitcher Garrett Richards — the next day, Beltre sent a $300 invoice to Richards to cover the replacements.  

Back to the milestones, it's clear Beltre will easily reach 1,600 RBIs and 3,000 Hits, but 500 HRs will be a lot tougher. Although, with two years left on his contract in Texas and at least another year after that somewhere as a DH, I think he will do whatever it takes to reach that club. I’m certainly rooting for him!

Monday, August 29, 2016

BAbip?! Isn't that a Korean rice bowl?

As I start to post more frequently, I want to make sure that I don't alienate any of my potential readers with terms and abbreviations that aren't obvious.  For instance, BAbip (not the Korean rice bowl - that's bibimbap) is Batting Average on Balls In Play.  The formula for BAbip is a player's hits minus his home runs divided by his at bats minus his strikeouts and home runs and finally adding on his sacrifice flys (H - HR/AB - K - HR + SF).  This stat effectively measures a player's batting average removing any at bat that is not affected by the opponent's defense.  An average BAbip tends to be around .300 and anything significantly higher than that indicates that the batter has been pretty lucky lately and one can assume a regression.  The opposite is true if someone's BAbip has been trending well below .300.  I'm always fascinated when a ball is hit directly at someone and, conversely, it seems so cheap when a player barely nicks the ball off the top of the bat and barely beats the throw to first base.

Anyway, there are a great deal of advanced metrics that are being used now in baseball and they are not always easy to understand.  I will be using a lot of these metrics over the course of my blog to help offer insights and trajectories for players and teams, and I want to make sure that everyone, even the casual fan, is able to follow along.  I have added an easy link in the right side panel of the blog that will take you directly to the Glossary page at MLB.com (also posted below).


Here you will be able to quickly search terms and gain a basic understanding of the metrics I use here in the blog (or a deep understanding into some of baseball’s most advanced metrics).  Any other suggestions to make this blog more accessible are always welcome, as I would love to bridge the gap between avid fans and casual observers.