TOP PLAYS — WORLD SERIES

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. World Series edition:

***Disclaimer: Narrowing the top plays in the 2016 World Series down to five was practically impossible and those seven games were some of the best baseball that has ever been played***

#5. With the Cubs down 3-1 in the series and already staring down an early 1-0 deficit in Game 5, Kris Bryant got just enough of the 1-1 pitch from Trevor Bauer to get up and over the ivy in left field and start a fourth inning rally that would extend the series to a sixth game.   

*wWPA: 14% **wWE: 56%

#4. Later in Game 5, Aroldis Chapman put together one of the best postseason relief performances ever when he came into pitch the final 2 ⅔ innings — giving up just one hit while striking out four batters. Chapman inherited a runner in scoring position in the seventh and didn’t falter, but his most impressive moment came in the top of the eighth when he was able to strike out the hot-hitting Lindor looking with the speedy Rajai Davis just 90 feet from tying the game.

*wWPA: 9% **wWE: 87%

#3. In Game 3, with the series tied at a game a piece, Cody Allen continued his absolute dominance in the postseason as he slammed the door shut on the Cubs striking out Javier Baez. Baez had worked a 2-2 count with runners in scoring position on second and third, and Allen was able to get him to chase a fastball high and outside to end the game and secure his sixth save of the playoffs.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 100%

#2. Coming in at #2, believe it or not, is the game-winning hit in the seventh, and final, game of the World Series. Ben Zobrist (0 for 4 in the game to that point) came through with one out and a 1-2 count when he slapped a single to the opposite field and drove in the go-ahead run earning World Series MVP honors in the process. Unfortunately for Zobrist, that still wasn’t the most pivotal moment in the World Series (although he got his second ring, so he’s probably not too upset).

*wWPA: 31% **wWE: 89%

#1. The most pivotal/clutch moment of the World Series was also the most surprising. Rajai Davis came up to bat with 2 outs and a runner on second base in the bottom of the eighth and with none other than Aroldis Chapman firing from sixty feet six inches away; Rajai who hit a career high 12 HRs during the regular season worked a 2-2 count and reached over the plate to pull a line drive down the line that barely cleared the left field wall and tied the game at 6-6. The momentum shifted in that improbable moment, and an already exciting Game 7 turned into one of the greatest baseball games of all-time.

*wWPA: -39% **wWE: 47%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added — The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy — The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

TOP PLAYS — NLCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the National League Championship Series edition:

#5. After dropping two games in a row to the Dodgers, the Cubbies came out swinging against the rookie Julio Urias. The rally in the top of the fourth featured 3 of the top 5 plays in Game 4. Zobrist, Baez and Contreras each singled to start the fourth inning and Russell later hit a two-run HR to help the Cubs take a 4 run lead into the second half of the game. It was the Contreras single that made it into the top 5 plays here as well as the subsequent RBI, which was the first run scored by the Cubs.

Contreras RBI single: *wWPA: 16% **wWE: 77%

#4. After a Game 1 loss, Kenley Jansen was able to save Game 2 for the Dodgers who managed only a single run for insurance. Jansen came in for a tough two inning save and slammed the door shut recording two perfect innings with 4 strikeouts. The Dexter Fowler strikeout makes the top 5 list which makes since considering Bryant and Rizzo were chomping at the bit for a game-tying RBI (it just so happens that Jansen retired Bryant and Rizzo as well).

Dexter Fowler K: *wWPA: 9% **wWE: 89%

At 1:43

#3. In Game 5, with the series tied at 2 games a piece, it was Addison Russell who came up huge again for Chicago. With one out and Baez on second base in the top of the sixth inning, Russell hit the second pitch he saw from veteran Joe Blanton over the right center field fence for his second HR in as many games (you can hear John Smoltz and Joe Buck debating whether or not LA would pitch to Russell in the background).

*wWPA: 25% **wWE: 78%

#2. The top two plays from the NLCS were in the dramatic series opener. Both teams waited until the eighth inning to amp of the excitement, but they certainly didn’t disappoint. After watching Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman come in and strikeout both Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig with the bases loaded, Adrian Gonzalez dug in and punched a single through the middle on a 1-1 count to even the game at 3-3 with his two RBIs.

*wWPA: -31% **wWE: 50%

#1. Not to be outdone, Miguel Montero came in as a pinch hitter for Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the eighth to inject his own bases loaded magic. Montero (who was 0-4 in the NLDS against the Giants) delivered with a two-out Grand Slam to put the game away for the Cubs. In fact, Blanton only needed one more strike to push this game to the ninth inning and give the Dodgers offense a chance, but he left the pitch right over the middle of the plate and Montero made him pay.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 99%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

TOP PLAYS — ALCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the American League Championship Series edition:

#5. Coming in at #5 is the improbable performance of Ryan Merritt who pitched 4 ⅓ innings of 2 hit ball in only his second career start to propel the Cleveland Indians to a series’ clinching Game Five win over Toronto. While only his double play off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion in the bottom of the 4th made the top plays’ list, his overall performance was beyond impressive and every inning he was able to eat was enough to extend the bullpen and help them enter their World Series matchup well rested.  

Encarnacion double play ball: *wWPA: 6% **wWE: 83%

At 0:30

#4. With the Blue Jays down 3-0 in the series, Donaldson came through in the bottom of the 3rd inning in Game 4 with a solo HR off Cy Young candidate, Corey Kluber. The reigning MVP of the AL gave the Blue Jays a lead that they would hold on to and extended the series with one swing of the bat on a 2-2 count.

*wWPA: 12% **wWE: 63%

#3. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller were brilliant throughout the playoffs and Game 2 of the ALCS was their finest moment. Miller struck out five of the six hitters he faced for two perfect innings on just 24 pitches; Allen struck out two of the three hitters he faced for a perfect ninth inning and the save. The moment that landed at #3 here was Allen’s strikeout of Edwin Encarnacion in the top of the ninth; Allen faced the heart of the order in the ninth, catching Edwin looking on a full count, Bautista swinging for a strikeout, and got Tulowitzki to fly out to center field.

*wWPA: 8% **wWE: 90%

#2. Facing a 2-2 count in the top of the sixth inning and the game tied at 2 runs apiece, Jason Kipnis took Stroman deep to right field to breakout of his slump and put the Indians on top. With the bullpen in rare form, one run was more than enough for the Indians in the postseason and therefore this clutch solo shot made it to #2 on the list.

*wWPA: 16% **wWE: 66%

#1. By far the most pivotal moment, based on the statistics in question, in the ALCS was all the way back in Game 1. Francisco Lindor kicked off Game 1 on the right foot for the Indians driving an 0-2 pitch over the right center field wall and plating Jason Kipnis for an early 2-0 lead.  

Those two runs ended up being the only runs in the ballgame and the Indians carried that momentum to a near sweep of the Blue Jays.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 82%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

TOP PLAYS - NLDS/WC

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball!  This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years.  Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look.  Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs.  Here is the National League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:

#5. These next two moments weren’t necessarily in fifth place in terms of wWPA and wWE, but they were definitely on the list.  The reason why they sit at #5 on the list is due to rarity of the situation and the fact that these two pitchers helped themselves and their team go on to win their respective games.  After taking over for Kyle Hendricks (who gave up two runs in 3 ⅔ innings on four hits), Travis Wood not only got four outs (2 strikeouts) without giving up a hit or a walk, but he extended the Cubs lead with a solo HR (just the 2nd reliever to hit a HR in the postseason.  Not to be outdone, Jake Arrieta helped himself out by launching a three run blast off of (another HR hitting pitcher) Madison Bumgarner in the top of the second inning in Game 3 against the Giants.  The bomb put the Cubs up 3-0, and although the Giants eventually marched back to take Game 3 with a score of 6-5 these pitchers certainly helped to kick start a stagnant Cubs offense.  Also, with Arrieta’s HR, the Cubs became just the second team in history to have two pitchers hit HRs in the same postseason.

Wood HR - *wWPA: 8% **wWE: 86%

Arrieta HR - *wWPA: -27% **wWE: 24%

#4. With only seven total hits in Game 1 between the Giants and Cubs heading into the bottom of the eighth, Cubs’ youngster Javier Baez came up huge hitting what would become the game winning HR well over the ivy in left field off of starter Johnny Cueto.  Up until that point in the game, Cueto had given up only two hits and had struck out nine in 7 ⅓ innings.

*wWPA: 30% **wWE: 86%

#3. Washington’s unlikely hero of Game 2 against LA was Jose Lobaton.  In the fourth inning with Washington trailing by two runs, Lobaton sat on a hanging curve from veteran Rich Hill and drove it over the left centerfield wall.  Lobaton’s 3 RBIs put the Nationals up for good in the game and even the series at a game a piece.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 65%

#2. The first of Conor Gillaspie’s heroic offerings came in the top of the ninth in the Giants’ Wild Card play-in game against the Mets.  With runners on first and second and one out, Gillaspie took Mets’ closer, Jeurys Familia, deep to right to give San Francisco a three run lead with just ½ inning left to play.

*wWPA: 38% **wWE: 96%

#1. In the bottom of the eighth inning with two runners on in Game 3 of the NLDS, Conor Gillaspie became a hero again as he crushed a triple to deep right centerfield off of the Cubs’ closer, Aroldis Chapman.  On a single swing of the bat, Gillaspie drove in two runs to give the Giants the lead and also put himself in scoring position with just one out in the inning.  Gillaspie would score on the next at-bat on a Brandon Crawford single up the middle to extend the Giants lead.

*wWPA: 50% **wWE: 91%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

TOP PLAYS - ALDS/ALWC

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball!  This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years.  Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look.  Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs.  Here is the American League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:

#5. Carlos Gomez ripped a line drive that ricocheted off of the face of Francisco Liriano, in the bottom of the eighth, for a single in Game 2 against the Blue Jays.  Moreland scored from 2B and the Rangers were in a position to tie the game with two runners on and the tying run at the plate.  Although the Rangers lost the game, Gomez’s single gave them an opportunity and also cost the Blue Jays a pitcher at a pivotal juncture in the ALDS.

*wWPA: -9% **wWE: 83%

At 0:51

#4. In the bottom of the eighth of Game 3, the Red Sox were rallying and two plays happened in that inning that both drastically changed the WE of the game.  Hanley Ramirez hit a two-out RBI single off Cody Allen, who had been lights out throughout the regular season and postseason, then with 2 outs and the tying run on second base, Cody Allen was able to get Bogaerts to line out to Kipnis to end the inning and the threat.

Ramirez two-out RBI *wWPA: -13% **wWE: 70%

Bogaerts line out   *wWPA: 12% **wWE: 83%

At 1:40

#3. After Josh Donaldson led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a double off of Matt Bush in game 3, it was his clutch, heads-up baserunning that sealed the series sweep of Texas as Rougned Odor’s errant throw ruined an inning ending double play and the Rangers Playoff run.  

Donaldson double *wWPA: 17% **wWE: 81%

Odor’s error *wWPA: 29% **wWE: 100%

#2. Cody Allen was remarkable throughout the 2016 Postseason and this moment may have been one of his best.  With a sweep of the Boston Red Sox on the line in the ALDS, runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Cody Allen was able to get Travis Shaw to flyout to shallow RF on a full count to clinch the series.

*wWPA: 18% **wWE: 100%

#1. In the Bottom of the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd and the score tied at 2-2, Edwin Encarnacion launched a walk-off HR to win the AL Wild Card Play-In game for the Toronto Blue Jays. This moment propelled the Blue Jays into the ALDS and the momentum garnered help them pull off an unlikely sweep of the Texas Rangers.

*wWPA: 17% **wWE: 100%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.

From Heroes to Zeroes in 3 Steps

Over the past 50 years, the MLB postseason format has changed drastically and finishing the season with the best record no longer guarantees that a team will advance to the World Series.  The 2016 Texas Rangers understand this all too well as they saw their dreams dashed in consecutive games in the American League Division Series by, this year’s AL Wild Card winners, the Toronto Blue Jays.  Despite their American League leading win/loss record (95-67), the Rangers were riddled with flaws that were easily exposed by the stiff postseason competition.  

So why exactly did the Rangers fail to live up to their hype in the 2016 postseason?  Here are the three reasons the Rangers are at home in Arlington - and not to host an ALCS game.

Bad Pitching

The regular season numbers don’t paint a picture of just how underwhelming the Rangers pitching was this season, considering they led the American League in Wins and Saves.  However, they were also among the worst in the league in ERA (4.37) and WHIP (1.369) as a team and their relief pitchers combined for 17 blown saves.  Certainly, the Rangers have to be pleased with the production from Cole Hamels in his first full season with the team (15-5, with a 3.32 ERA and averaging a strikeout per inning), and Yu Darvish - even with his short DL stint - coming back from Tommy John surgery looked to be the same dominant strikeout pitcher.  Still, the Rangers’ weakness was evident in their ALDS matchup as their pitching staff gave up an average of 7 runs a game to the Toronto Blue Jays and failed to close out Game 3 losing in extra innings.

Trade Deadline Mishaps

Pitching was, as it always is, a hot commodity at the trade deadline and the names that ended up in Texas were not among the coveted options on the market.  To be fair, there weren’t a lot of aces up for grabs, but the Rangers could have found help.  Matt Moore was traded to the Giants and threw a no-hitter, as well as a solid playoff game for them; Ivan Nova threw 3 complete games for the Pirates and went 5-2 in eleven starts after being acquired from the Yankees; and Rich Hill just pitched six innings of two hit ball to lead the Dodgers to a 2-1 lead in the NLCS over the Cubs in Game 3.  The Rangers did improve their offense at the trade deadline acquiring Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, but the offense wasn’t necessarily the problem as the team ranked 6th in both Runs and RBIs over the first half of the season - and both Lucroy and Beltran are free agents this offseason meaning their half year rental was for naught.

Poor Management

Prince Fielder started 89 games for the Rangers in 2016, and, as good as Prince has been, that was 89 too many games.  Prince was clearly not himself all season long - slugging a measly .334 with just 8 home runs - and was eventually forced to retire for medical reasons, and yet the Rangers kept going back to him time and time again.  It’s hard to bench a guy that was an All-Star and an MVP candidate just one year ago, but the Rangers were clearly headed to the postseason and they had an heir apparent waiting in the minor league wings in Joey Gallo.  However, the Texas Rangers are stubborn and while they continue to tell teams that Joey Gallo is off limits as each trade deadline approaches, they failed to take advantage of a perfect time to get his bat into the lineup.  Of course, to their credit, the Rangers did find 90 games for their other brilliant prospect, Jurickson Profar, but that was mainly due to injuries to Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, and Mitch Moreland as well as the defensive versatility that Profar brings to the club.

Despite winning their 95 wins, the Rangers have to be disappointed in their 2016 campaign and they’ll need to make a big splash in free agency this offseason if they don’t want to continue that trend in 2017.