TOP PLAYS - NLDS/WC

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball!  This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years.  Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look.  Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs.  Here is the National League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:

#5. These next two moments weren’t necessarily in fifth place in terms of wWPA and wWE, but they were definitely on the list.  The reason why they sit at #5 on the list is due to rarity of the situation and the fact that these two pitchers helped themselves and their team go on to win their respective games.  After taking over for Kyle Hendricks (who gave up two runs in 3 ⅔ innings on four hits), Travis Wood not only got four outs (2 strikeouts) without giving up a hit or a walk, but he extended the Cubs lead with a solo HR (just the 2nd reliever to hit a HR in the postseason.  Not to be outdone, Jake Arrieta helped himself out by launching a three run blast off of (another HR hitting pitcher) Madison Bumgarner in the top of the second inning in Game 3 against the Giants.  The bomb put the Cubs up 3-0, and although the Giants eventually marched back to take Game 3 with a score of 6-5 these pitchers certainly helped to kick start a stagnant Cubs offense.  Also, with Arrieta’s HR, the Cubs became just the second team in history to have two pitchers hit HRs in the same postseason.

Wood HR - *wWPA: 8% **wWE: 86%

Arrieta HR - *wWPA: -27% **wWE: 24%

#4. With only seven total hits in Game 1 between the Giants and Cubs heading into the bottom of the eighth, Cubs’ youngster Javier Baez came up huge hitting what would become the game winning HR well over the ivy in left field off of starter Johnny Cueto.  Up until that point in the game, Cueto had given up only two hits and had struck out nine in 7 ⅓ innings.

*wWPA: 30% **wWE: 86%

#3. Washington’s unlikely hero of Game 2 against LA was Jose Lobaton.  In the fourth inning with Washington trailing by two runs, Lobaton sat on a hanging curve from veteran Rich Hill and drove it over the left centerfield wall.  Lobaton’s 3 RBIs put the Nationals up for good in the game and even the series at a game a piece.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 65%

#2. The first of Conor Gillaspie’s heroic offerings came in the top of the ninth in the Giants’ Wild Card play-in game against the Mets.  With runners on first and second and one out, Gillaspie took Mets’ closer, Jeurys Familia, deep to right to give San Francisco a three run lead with just ½ inning left to play.

*wWPA: 38% **wWE: 96%

#1. In the bottom of the eighth inning with two runners on in Game 3 of the NLDS, Conor Gillaspie became a hero again as he crushed a triple to deep right centerfield off of the Cubs’ closer, Aroldis Chapman.  On a single swing of the bat, Gillaspie drove in two runs to give the Giants the lead and also put himself in scoring position with just one out in the inning.  Gillaspie would score on the next at-bat on a Brandon Crawford single up the middle to extend the Giants lead.

*wWPA: 50% **wWE: 91%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.