TOP PLAYS - ALDS/ALWC

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball!  This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years.  Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look.  Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs.  Here is the American League Division Series and Wild Card Play-In edition:

#5. Carlos Gomez ripped a line drive that ricocheted off of the face of Francisco Liriano, in the bottom of the eighth, for a single in Game 2 against the Blue Jays.  Moreland scored from 2B and the Rangers were in a position to tie the game with two runners on and the tying run at the plate.  Although the Rangers lost the game, Gomez’s single gave them an opportunity and also cost the Blue Jays a pitcher at a pivotal juncture in the ALDS.

*wWPA: -9% **wWE: 83%

At 0:51

#4. In the bottom of the eighth of Game 3, the Red Sox were rallying and two plays happened in that inning that both drastically changed the WE of the game.  Hanley Ramirez hit a two-out RBI single off Cody Allen, who had been lights out throughout the regular season and postseason, then with 2 outs and the tying run on second base, Cody Allen was able to get Bogaerts to line out to Kipnis to end the inning and the threat.

Ramirez two-out RBI *wWPA: -13% **wWE: 70%

Bogaerts line out   *wWPA: 12% **wWE: 83%

At 1:40

#3. After Josh Donaldson led off the bottom of the 10th inning with a double off of Matt Bush in game 3, it was his clutch, heads-up baserunning that sealed the series sweep of Texas as Rougned Odor’s errant throw ruined an inning ending double play and the Rangers Playoff run.  

Donaldson double *wWPA: 17% **wWE: 81%

Odor’s error *wWPA: 29% **wWE: 100%

#2. Cody Allen was remarkable throughout the 2016 Postseason and this moment may have been one of his best.  With a sweep of the Boston Red Sox on the line in the ALDS, runners on 1st and 2nd with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Cody Allen was able to get Travis Shaw to flyout to shallow RF on a full count to clinch the series.

*wWPA: 18% **wWE: 100%

#1. In the Bottom of the 11th with runners on 1st and 3rd and the score tied at 2-2, Edwin Encarnacion launched a walk-off HR to win the AL Wild Card Play-In game for the Toronto Blue Jays. This moment propelled the Blue Jays into the ALDS and the momentum garnered help them pull off an unlikely sweep of the Texas Rangers.

*wWPA: 17% **wWE: 100%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.