TOP PLAYS — ALCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the American League Championship Series edition:

#5. Coming in at #5 is the improbable performance of Ryan Merritt who pitched 4 ⅓ innings of 2 hit ball in only his second career start to propel the Cleveland Indians to a series’ clinching Game Five win over Toronto. While only his double play off the bat of Edwin Encarnacion in the bottom of the 4th made the top plays’ list, his overall performance was beyond impressive and every inning he was able to eat was enough to extend the bullpen and help them enter their World Series matchup well rested.  

Encarnacion double play ball: *wWPA: 6% **wWE: 83%

At 0:30

#4. With the Blue Jays down 3-0 in the series, Donaldson came through in the bottom of the 3rd inning in Game 4 with a solo HR off Cy Young candidate, Corey Kluber. The reigning MVP of the AL gave the Blue Jays a lead that they would hold on to and extended the series with one swing of the bat on a 2-2 count.

*wWPA: 12% **wWE: 63%

#3. Cody Allen and Andrew Miller were brilliant throughout the playoffs and Game 2 of the ALCS was their finest moment. Miller struck out five of the six hitters he faced for two perfect innings on just 24 pitches; Allen struck out two of the three hitters he faced for a perfect ninth inning and the save. The moment that landed at #3 here was Allen’s strikeout of Edwin Encarnacion in the top of the ninth; Allen faced the heart of the order in the ninth, catching Edwin looking on a full count, Bautista swinging for a strikeout, and got Tulowitzki to fly out to center field.

*wWPA: 8% **wWE: 90%

#2. Facing a 2-2 count in the top of the sixth inning and the game tied at 2 runs apiece, Jason Kipnis took Stroman deep to right field to breakout of his slump and put the Indians on top. With the bullpen in rare form, one run was more than enough for the Indians in the postseason and therefore this clutch solo shot made it to #2 on the list.

*wWPA: 16% **wWE: 66%

#1. By far the most pivotal moment, based on the statistics in question, in the ALCS was all the way back in Game 1. Francisco Lindor kicked off Game 1 on the right foot for the Indians driving an 0-2 pitch over the right center field wall and plating Jason Kipnis for an early 2-0 lead.  

Those two runs ended up being the only runs in the ballgame and the Indians carried that momentum to a near sweep of the Blue Jays.

*wWPA: 24% **wWE: 82%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.