TOP PLAYS — NLCS

The best part about October baseball is when it becomes November baseball! This years MLB postseason was one for the ages, and it’s not too soon to relive the most important and exciting moments that led to the Chicago Cubs first World Series Championship in over 100 years. Often the most exciting plays in a game are independent of the outcome, but as fans were biting their nails and staying up well past their bedtimes there were plenty of offensive and defensive plays that changed the course of the playoffs and those are the moments that deserve a second look. Using Win Expectancy (WE) and Win Probability Added (WPA) statistics from Baseball-Reference.com, the following plays were the most pivotal moments of the 2016 Playoffs. Here is the National League Championship Series edition:

#5. After dropping two games in a row to the Dodgers, the Cubbies came out swinging against the rookie Julio Urias. The rally in the top of the fourth featured 3 of the top 5 plays in Game 4. Zobrist, Baez and Contreras each singled to start the fourth inning and Russell later hit a two-run HR to help the Cubs take a 4 run lead into the second half of the game. It was the Contreras single that made it into the top 5 plays here as well as the subsequent RBI, which was the first run scored by the Cubs.

Contreras RBI single: *wWPA: 16% **wWE: 77%

#4. After a Game 1 loss, Kenley Jansen was able to save Game 2 for the Dodgers who managed only a single run for insurance. Jansen came in for a tough two inning save and slammed the door shut recording two perfect innings with 4 strikeouts. The Dexter Fowler strikeout makes the top 5 list which makes since considering Bryant and Rizzo were chomping at the bit for a game-tying RBI (it just so happens that Jansen retired Bryant and Rizzo as well).

Dexter Fowler K: *wWPA: 9% **wWE: 89%

At 1:43

#3. In Game 5, with the series tied at 2 games a piece, it was Addison Russell who came up huge again for Chicago. With one out and Baez on second base in the top of the sixth inning, Russell hit the second pitch he saw from veteran Joe Blanton over the right center field fence for his second HR in as many games (you can hear John Smoltz and Joe Buck debating whether or not LA would pitch to Russell in the background).

*wWPA: 25% **wWE: 78%

#2. The top two plays from the NLCS were in the dramatic series opener. Both teams waited until the eighth inning to amp of the excitement, but they certainly didn’t disappoint. After watching Cubs closer Aroldis Chapman come in and strikeout both Corey Seager and Yasiel Puig with the bases loaded, Adrian Gonzalez dug in and punched a single through the middle on a 1-1 count to even the game at 3-3 with his two RBIs.

*wWPA: -31% **wWE: 50%

#1. Not to be outdone, Miguel Montero came in as a pinch hitter for Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the eighth to inject his own bases loaded magic. Montero (who was 0-4 in the NLDS against the Giants) delivered with a two-out Grand Slam to put the game away for the Cubs. In fact, Blanton only needed one more strike to push this game to the ninth inning and give the Dodgers offense a chance, but he left the pitch right over the middle of the plate and Montero made him pay.

*wWPA: 35% **wWE: 99%

*wWPA winner's Win Probability Added - The win probability added or subtracted (if negative) by this single play from the eventual winning team's win expectancy.

**wWE winner's Win Expectancy - The current probability (after the play) of the eventual winner winning at this point in the game. Note these are rounded, so a probability of 100% before the last play means it is close, but not quite 100%.