They're GRRREEAATT!

Detroit Tigers

Current Record: 63-54 (2nd in AL Central)

Projected Record: 86-76 (2nd in AL Central) *

RPI: .511 (10th in MLB) **

The Tigers finished first in the AL Central in 2011, 12, 13, and 14, but have not been able to turn their mini-dynasty into a World Series Championship. This year, while expectations are certainly still high, Tigers fans have been guarded and afraid to get burned again after an incredibly disappointing 2015 campaign and who could blame them. Four seasons of tremendous baseball, including four first place finishes, one pennant (2012), 3 AL MVPs (Justin Verlander — 2011, Miguel Cabrera — 2012,13), and 2 AL Cy Young Award winners (Verlander — 2011, Max Scherzer — 2013), and no World Series titles to show for it. It’s tough to believe that a team with so much talent would have such a hard time coming through in the clutch, and, unfortunately, it seems as if they could be destined to repeat their miserable mistakes again this year.

Smoldering or Extinguished?

Believe it or not, I’m still on board with the Tigers and so I’m going to say they’re smoldering. They are absolutely not playing their best baseball right now and they need to turn it around (4-6 in their last 10 games), however their end of season schedule is a cakewalk compared to the other teams vying for the Wild Card. Eight of the Tigers last eighteen games this season are against the two worst teams in MLB (Twins and Braves) and they have three more against the Royals, who are on a three-game losing streak and have lost six of the last ten games. The Tigers are also the healthiest they’ve been all season and are about to get Nick Castellanos back this week or next, so they are poised for a hot streak.  

Is there a chance for a spark?

Yes, and the spark needs to happen now! Luckily for Tigers fans, the stat projections and DFS (FanGraphs — Daily Fantasy Projections ***) values are predicting it will. Five Tigers hitters were listed in the top 30 of DFS rankings from Wednesday with Miguel Cabrera and JD Martinez cracking the top 5. The same cannot be said of the Tigers rotation, at least not as a whole. Mike Pelfrey wasn’t getting any love from the DFS projections coming in as the third worst pitching option for last night’s game, which was a good call as Pelfrey only survived 1 ⅔ innings giving up four runs on 5 hits. In September, the Tigers have given up at least five runs in eight of their thirteen games. On the bright side, Justin Verlander seems to be back to his Cy Young days (currently 12th in MLB in WAR and throwing 200 innings already this season) and Michael Fulmer seems like a lock for AL Rookie of the Year. In fact, the only worry about Michael Fulmer was his longevity and Brad Ausmus confirmed that the Tigers will not skip any of his starts going forward (a topic that has been debated all season long). At this point, there’s no catching Cleveland for the AL Central title, but the Wild Card is well within their grasp. The biggest obstacle for the Tigers going forward is themselves. I believe if they win they’re in. The AL East seems to be taking care of themselves and I’m starting to believe only one of those teams will end up with a Wild Card spot, which means the Tigers could easily sneak in for the other as long as the red hot Seattle Mariners cool off a bit.

When will it rekindle?

The answer is NOW. The Tigers are a great team and I think they are at a tipping point right now, but maybe just a little too late in the season for it to work out for this postseason. With that said, I think 2017 could be a huge year for them! Cleveland won’t be any worse, but neither will Detroit. The only key FA loss they will be suffering in 2017 is Francisco Rodriguez. Although he’s been fantastic this season, the Tigers bullpen is strong on the back end and they could easily get away with either of the Wilsons (Alex or Justin) in the closer role or pick up one of the top FAs this offseason (Chapman, Melancon, Jensen). The only thing you have to wonder/worry about if you’re a Tigers fan next season, is which version of the team will show up and will they stay healthy. JD Martinez has been unstoppable since coming off the DL and Cabrera and Upton have been coming on strong over the last couple of months. However, Cabrera will be another year older and he’ll still have to play in the field with Victor Martinez locking up the DH spot. Cameron Maybin may or may not be the answer for the final OF spot in Detroit, but we won’t know if he can’t stay healthy. The infield still seems like it is locked up with Castellanos, Kinsler, Cabrera, and Iglesias, but they also have some depth with rookie Jacoby Jones making a bit of a splash in Detroit with his speed and athleticism (worth noting that Jones is also starting in CF last night, so that may add on to my questions about Maybin for next year). Lastly, there are obvious reasons to be excited about Verlander’s huge comeback this year and it feels great to pencil in Verlander and Fulmer at the top of that 2017 rotation, however if I’m in the Tigers organization I’m crossing the fingers on my other hand while I do that. Verlander’s health and Fulmer’s youth will be the biggest question marks heading into next season and probably the two things that will make or break them in 2017.

Fantasy Embers

The top Detroit hitters will continue to be considered for a stack in DFS formats, especially with their easy schedule going forward. My favorite of the bunch is JD Martinez; the guy has been on fire since coming off the DL and he has been the unsung hero for Detroit since breaking out in 2014. Fulmer and Verlander are still on my list of must-starts, although if the Tigers fall out of the Wild Card I’m not entirely sure Fulmer will be remain in the rotation as Ausmus has promised. How could I forget Ian Kinsler? I barely mentioned him by name above, and maybe that’s because he is the most consistent if not always the flashiest. He’s only the sixth best 2B this season, according to FanGraphs WAR calculations (Wins Above Replacement), but he’s 19th among all hitters which shows how strong the 2B position has been this season. Lastly, you have to have K-Rod (Francisco Rodriguez) in your lineups considering the Tigers need to win some games down the stretch. K-Rod is ranked 4th in the league in Saves, despite his pretty pedestrian K/9 (7.62) and BB/9 (3.31), so while he may not do wonders for your Ks, ERA, and WHIP categories, he will certainly get you a few more saves and perhaps a random win or two.

* — projected standings are courtesy of Fangraphs.com

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

*** - FanGraphs — Daily Fantasy Projections