Still Waters Run Deep

Seattle Mariners

Current Record: 79-70 (2nd in AL West)

Projected Record: 86-76 (2nd in AL West)*

RPI: .512 (8th in MLB)**

Smoldering or Extinguished?

The Seattle Mariners are the absolute definition of SMOLDERING right now. As David Schoenfield pointed out earlier this week (9/13), “A week ago the Mariners were six games out of the wild-card race and, just as problematic, behind all the other wild-card contenders. With a six-game winning streak they've passed the Royals and Astros and sit 2.5 games behind the Orioles. Their playoff odds have gone from "dead" to 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.” Since then, they’ve won three more games and they are not only red hot, but they are quietly infiltrating the postseason conversation and making a case for the Wild Card in the AL (currently tied with Detroit two games back). During this September hot streak, the Mariners have won 3 out of 4 against the Rangers (currently first in AL West) and are near the top of the league in virtually all pitching and hitting categories in that span. Over the past fourteen days, the Mariners pitchers rank third in MLB in ERA and HR/9 while their hitters are fifth in MLB in HRs which could be a deadly combination for their AL rivals down the stretch. With six games left against Wild Card contenders (Houston/Toronto) and seven more against last place teams (Minnesota/Oakland), the Mariners seem to hold their own fate in their hands.

Is there a chance for a spark?

Not only is there a chance for a spark; the Mariners are holding the match. The Mariners have come out of nowhere and are climbing up the Power Rankings each week and the rest of the wild-card contenders are falling off fast and taking each other out. Kyle Seager is quietly having a career year setting personal bests in HRs (currently 29) and RBIs (at least he will soon, he’s only 1 away at 95); Taijuan Walker, who said recently that he made some changes to his mechanics, threw a complete-game shutout against the Angels on Tuesday tallying 11 K’s and 0 BB’s; Nelson Cruz is batting .340 in September and has an OPS of 1.014. There are a lot of things going right for the Mariners, but they still lost 2 out of 3 to Houston this past week and one of those losses was charged to Felix Hernandez who was tagged for six runs on eight hits over 4.1 innings. If the Mariners want to continue their hot streak and find a way into the Wild Card, they will need Felix to be his old self again. In seasons when Hernandez made five or more September/October (cross your fingers he remains healthy), he has an average ERA of 1.92 and an average WHIP of 0.964, while holding opponents to an AVG under .200. They will also certainly need to get more production out of Robinson Cano, whose AVG has dipped below .300 again on the season due in large part to his September numbers (. 215 AVG, .271 OBP, .369 SLG).

When will it rekindle?

Like Detroit, I believe this could be just the beginning for Seattle. Their starting rotation is dripping with upside and youth, albeit a little inconsistency. Hernandez has been hampered with a few injuries this year and the Mariners certainly hope he’s able to return to his previous form next season. Nate Karns, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton have electric stuff and the potential to round out one of the best rotations in baseball, as long as they can stay on the field. However, Tommy John surgery has been an unfortunate trend in MLB and, while you can’t predict injury, it seems to be more likely among pitchers who throw at high velocities and all three of those guys throw much harder than the average major league hurler. The bullpen also seems to be set for years to come with Edwin Diaz exploding onto the scene and into the Rookie of the Year conversation this season (since taking over in August, he has converted 16 of 17 save chances). Just like the starting rotation, the bullpen will have to avoid overuse and injury to remain viable, especially since Tony Zych, Steve Cishek, Ryan Cook, and Charlie Furbush all spent time on the DL this year. Mike Zunino and Ketel Marte lead the youth movement on offense and, although they have had up and down years, they clearly have the skill sets to build a team around for years to come. In addition, the Mariners have control over Cano, Cruz, Seager, and Martin for the next two years and they acquired some exciting depth at the deadline in Daniel Vogelbach and Ben Gamel. The FA class this offseason might not do much for the Mariners, however they could afford to sell high and trade Cruz for some more versatility, which would allow them to use their DH spot next season to give their veterans some much needed rest.

Fantasy Embers

Paxton and Walker are in your lineup every week if you are still trailing in Ks, but it’s hard to trust them not to hurt your WHIP or ERA and they are not a lock for Wins/QS. No one has confidence in Hernandez right now, but, as I mentioned above, there are very few pitchers better than Hernandez in Sept/Oct and he will certainly be pitching and eating innings. Just make sure you play the matchups with Hernandez. If you consider that Minnesota, Houston, and Toronto rank in the bottom ten in MLB against right-handed pitchers and Safeco Field is one of most pitcher-friendly parks; there seem to be plenty of solid matchups for Hernandez coming up. You have to ride out the season with Cano, but I can’t promise it will be pretty considering the cold streak he is on. Speaking of streaks, you have to stick with Cruz right now as he continues to destroy opposing pitching this month. If you are managing a keeper/dynasty league, then you need to stock up on the young Mariners. Vogelbach seems destined to take over for Adam Lind at 1B in the near future; Mike Zunino has the potential to be a top ten catcher next season and beyond; Diaz seems like a sure thing to lock down the closer spot for the Mariners next season; Seager looks to improve on his career numbers next season; and Cano, even in an off year, continues to be among the top 2B in the league.

* — projected standings are courtesy of Fangraphs.com

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.