Don't Count Your Chickens Before They Hatch ...

Baltimore Orioles

Current Record: 72-61 (3rd in AL East)

Projected Record: 87-75 (3rd in AL East) *

RPI — .518 (5th in MLB)**

The Orioles have 29 games left (as I write this) and all but 6 of them are against AL East opponents. While that certainly creates a lot of opportunities for the Orioles to gain ground in the AL East, it also means it could be difficult for them to hold onto the second Wild Card spot. On top of that, three of their other six games are against the Tigers (the team they are currently tied with for that same second Wild Card spot in the AL) making basically every game a must win going forward for them. Last week, the O’s came one game short of sweeping the Nationals in a split series, but since that series they have lost 4 of 6 games and were outscored 40-23 (they are also 6-9 in their last 15 games including the Nationals series).

Smoldering or Extinguished?

Unfortunately, I’m going to have to say the flame is EXTINGUISHED for the Orioles. The Orioles are capable of huge numbers on offense and they are still leading MLB with 209 HRs on the season. While the Orioles continue to rake, hitting the most HRs over the last 30 days, it’s not translating into runs as they are 15th in MLB during that span. I guess what I’m trying to say is that the O’s have lacked consistency down the stretch. Some of that certainly has to do with injuries to Adam Jones and Chris Tillman, two of their most consistent performers over the past two years. Adam Jones has remained on the bench over the last week due to a hamstring strain and although it doesn’t seem to be serious enough to land him on the DL, hamstring injuries are extremely unpredictable and the O's will need Jones healthy down the stretch. Even more significant, perhaps, is the shoulder injury that has landed Chris Tillman on the DL. Tillman has been the only consistent spot in the rotation all year and right now they don’t expect him back until mid-September. Even if he is able to make it back for the postseason, assuming they make it there, I’m not sure they can be confident that he’ll be able to replicate his regular season numbers post-injury.  

Is there a chance for a spark?

Wait ... are the Orioles managed by Buck Showalter? Yes? Then YES, there is a chance for a spark! I don’t see it, but I know Buck does and I try not to doubt him. Let’s get a little more in depth than that, though. I already mentioned that the O’s lead the league in HRs and that’s because they have three players with more than 30 HRs (Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado, and Chris Davis) and those guys are not slowing down at all. In fact, those same three guys each hit 10 HRs in the month of August (Only the 4th time this has happened in MLB history — 47' Giants, 96' Rockies, 15' Blue Jays ***). Hyun Soo Kim is turning it on as well. His splits against lefties are horrible, but his OBP is almost .400 and the Orioles just claimed Drew Stubbs off waivers who, along with Nolan Reimold, could create a decent platoon in left field with Kim. There’s not too much to worry about in the O’s bullpen with Zach Britton having a spectacular season and the possible return of Darren O'Day in September, but they need to get some consistency out of the starting pitching. In fact, only two starting pitchers for the Orioles had more than 1 win in the month of August (Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman) and as a team the Orioles had an ERA over 5 and a WHIP of 1.50 (both of those stats rank 4th worst in the MLB in that span). Hopefully, Bundy and Gausman can continue to miss bats and the rest of the bunch, made up mostly of veterans, can reign it in September.

When will it rekindle?

Even though the Orioles are within striking distance in the AL East, I don’t think they can overcome their inconsistencies to make a run in September. I think they have a tremendous amount of talent on the roster though. Any franchise would love to build a team around guys like Jones and Machado. They’re also getting some unexpected production out of their year rental, Trumbo, and Tillman was shutting down opposing offenses until he hit the DL. On top of that, Buck Showalter won Manager of the Year only two years ago and has built an amazing culture in Baltimore. I don’t think I’ve ever heard a bad word spoken about Buck Showalter and he is a consummate professional and a master of the game. Unfortunately, Buck didn’t get the help he needed at the Trade Deadline and the few moves they made ahead of the September roster expansion (picking up Michael Bourn, Stubbs, Kyle Lobstein) won’t do much but add weight to the bench. Going into 2017, the Orioles will more than likely lose Steve Pearce, Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez, and Matt Wieters to free agency. While I’m sure they would rather not lose their starting catcher and the MLB HR leader, they won’t want to pay to keep these guys and the FA class this offseason is pretty decent: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Wilson Ramos, Justin Turner, Ian Desmond, etc. If they can attract a few of those guys to go along with Machado, Jones, and Britton then they could set themselves up for another decent season next year. Beyond 2017, it’s hard to predict because there are very few guys that are ready to make a mark on the Major Leagues. Although, Chance Sisco (just promoted to AAA — Norfolk) went 2 for 5 with 5 RBIs in his debut and could be the replacement for Wieters within the next couple of seasons if they lose him to free agency.

Fantasy Embers

It’s not too hard to figure out who to sit/start when it comes to the Orioles. You’re clearly starting Machado, Trumbo, Britton the rest of the season, and you’re also not going to sit Davis, but beware of his ability to find a cold streak without a moment's notice. Jones is hitting .300 right now, but with his hamstring strain it’s impossible to predict whether or not he’ll be healthy enough to give you any production. I don’t know if I could get behind using any of the Baltimore starters, especially with the schedule they have going forward, but Britton seems like a safe bet to close out a handful more games rest of season, at the very least. If you’re in a keepers league/dynasty league and you have Machado, then you have to be excited about your chances for the next 5 years. Beyond that, you’re probably keeping Jones and Davis and the young, soon-to-be ace, Bundy (for the upside), but I would wait on Trumbo and Wieters to see where they end up after free agency.

* - projected standing are courtesy of FanGraphs

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25 percent team winning percentage, 50 percent opponents' average winning percentage, and 25 percent opponents' opponents' average winning percentage.

*** - (according to Elias Sports Bureau via ESPN.com) Orioles are the fourth team to have three players hit 10 HR in the same month. The other teams to do it: NY Giants (July 1947 — Marshall, Mize, Thomson), Rockies (August 1996 — Castilla, Burks, Galarraga), Blue Jays (August 2015 — Bautista, Encarnación, Donaldson)