Code Blue (Jays)

Toronto Blue Jays

Current Record: 77-61 (Ranks 2nd in AL EAST)

Projected Record: 90-72 (Ranks 2nd in AL EAST)*

RPI: 0.522 (Ranks 3rd in MLB)**

Don’t let the title of this blog fool you, the Blue Jays are currently 0.5 games out of first and I firmly believe that they will hold on to at least keep one of the Wild Card spots in the AL. However since winning the World Series in 1993, last season was the only time the Blue Jays played into October. After losing a hard-fought battle to the Royals (eventual World Series champions) in 2015, the Blue Jays definitely have had something to prove this season. They have one of the most talented rosters in the league and have been getting incredible production from some unlikely sources (Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez), but this may be the last chance for this group as Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Michael Saunders are set to become FAs at season’s end. If the Blue Jays can’t fulfill their World Series destiny this season it’ll feel like they were (literally and figuratively) punched in the mouth.

Sorry that video had to make it in here somehow ... and Texas may be the team that keeps the Blue Jays from reaching their postseason glory so it's relevant.

Smoldering or Extinguished?

I want to say Smoldering here, but I hate the moves the Blue Jays have made to close out the season so I’m going to say EXTINGUISHED. They sent Aaron Sanchez (by far their best starter this season) to AAA, simply to limit his innings; they traded for Melvin Upton Jr who has added very little to their club over the past month (. 217 AVG, .264 OBP, with only 3 HRs and 5 steals in 8 attempts); they also traded for some starting pitching “depth” in Mike Bolsinger, Scott Feldman, and Francisco Liriano (the Blue Jays starters are 8-8 over the last 30 days with a 4.63 ERA). This team is being mismanaged from the top down and I’m not sure they have the staying power to make a run in October. Even if they do, I don’t know if they will have the composure since their Manager, John Gibbons, has already been ejected seven times this season (most recently Sept 4th for arguing Balls/Strikes in the 4th inning). If the Blue Jays truly are having trouble managing their team and getting the right personnel in the game at the right moment, I’m sure they’d appreciate having their Manager in the dugout for the whole game.

Is there a chance for a spark?

I feel like a broken record here (that is if you've read my previous posts on the Orioles and Yankees), but anything can happen in the AL East. Even the Blue Jays, who are reeling after being swept in a closely contested series against the Yankees, can quickly go on a run and win ten in a row. Of course, they could also lose ten in a row, which is the beauty of September baseball in the AL East. If the Blue Jays are going to get a spark, it has to come from their offense. They are boom or bust, and have been all year long. In fact, currently the Blue Jays rank 6th in MLB in RBIs, while also ranking 8th in K%. Everyone knows the Blue Jays hit fastballs well and strikeout a lot, so teams are beginning to challenge their weaknesses and avoid their strengths. Nowhere was this more evident than the near implosion of Dellin Betances, New York Yankees closer, in the 9th inning of Tuesday night’s game. Dellin, who can top out at 100 MPH with his fastball, threw 65 percent sliders, which would have been the right idea if he could have located his pitches better. The Blue Jays are going to have to put the ball in play and avoid the strikeouts if they want to succeed. All of this makes me wonder how this month would have gone if the Jays were able to make a deal at the deadline for a guy like Jay Bruce and/or a top tier SP.

When will it rekindle?

There is no rekindling for the Blue Jays! They need to keep this ember hot and start another fire now or they will be put out for a while. This is THE YEAR! The Blue Jays need to make a run now before they lose all their studs to free agency. There isn’t a lot in their minor league system (according to MLB.com, the Blue Jays only have two prospects in the top 100 for MLB), and at season's end the players remaining on the roster won’t bring about a lot of excitement. They’ll still have Donaldson, Pillar, Travis, Tulowitzki, and Martin, but only Donaldson has remained healthy and offered consistent production the past couple of years. There is hope in their young starting rotation, but I don’t think anyone can believe that Happ and Estrada will be nearly as good next year and Marcus Stroman fell off in a big way this year, so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll respond next year.

Fantasy Embers

Encarnacion is currently leading MLB in RBIs, so he is currently rostered and starting in every fantasy league and he is the only no-brainer on the Blue Jays roster as far as I’m concerned. Kevin Pillar has killer speed, he’s been hitting over .300 since coming off the DL, and most importantly he’s going to stay in the lineup due to the lack of outfield depth and his fielding prowess. Lastly, I think you can pick your spots with Aaron Sanchez. He would be a must start, but the Blue Jays can’t decide what to do with him and the inconsistency means it’s not certain how many starts he will get the rest of the season or whether or not he’ll be ready for those starts when/if he gets them. Sanchez is probably the only pitcher I’d consider using on the Blue Jays. Happ and Estrada have had amazing seasons so far, but it looks as if they’re coming back down to earth and Stroman has been the model of inconsistency (his Strikeout totals over his last six games were 13, 4, 8, 9, 5, 3). Osuna has been pretty solid since the beginning of August, but the Blue Jays don’t offer a lot of save opportunities since they typically win big when they do (he’s only pitched 11.2 innings since August 1st). Alright ... twist my arm ... you can use Russell Martin as well in your lineup, but only because the catcher position has been terrible this season so far.


* — projected standings are courtesy of FanGraphs

** - (according to ESPN.com) The basic formula is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents average winning percentage.